Wednesday, during an appearance on Fox News Channel’s “Special Report,” polling expert and FiveThirty Eight founder Nate Silver discussed the current state of the 2024 presidential contest.
According to Silver, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris had a “slight” advantage over her Republican counterpart Donald Trump. However, he reminded viewers how the polls had been wrong in the previous presidential contests.
“Polls are a snapshot of the time,” Fox News host Bret Baier said. “You talk about this all the time. But where is the snapshot that you see right now in this race?”
“If you have the election tomorrow, which would be a strange thing to do by the way, I think Harris would be a slight favorite,” Nate Silver replied. “She has been ahead in most recent polling in the blue wall states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, all polling in the margin of error range. Look, this Fox News poll is pretty good for Trump. That will help a little bit when we update our model tomorrow. But you would rather be Harris today.”
“People should remember, though, two things,” he continued. “One, we have three more months to go. There will be more surprises. And two, the polls have been wrong before. In the last general elections, they both underestimated Trump.”
Follow Jeff Poor on Twitter @jeff_poor
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