Tuesday, during a segment on CNN, network data analyst Harry Enten downplayed the polling enthusiasm for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
According to Enten, if the margin of error from 2016 and 2020 is factored in for battleground states, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump still has an advantage.
“Yes, right, exactly. I mean the thing that – we put out those poll numbers yesterday,” he said. “You know, The New York Times, Sienna College, we covered them. I showed you the Ipsos polling. All of which that showed Kamala Harris with clear momentum, enthusiasm potentially on her side. But I just want to take a step back and sort of point out — we’ve kind of been here before. So, August 13, how far were the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And this is in 2016 and 2020. Trump was estimated both times around and by significant margins.”
“Take a look here, in 2016, the average poll in those states that I mentioned, those Great Lake battleground states, Trump was underestimated by nine points on average at this point in 2016,” Enten said. “How about 2020? It wasn’t a one-off. Look at this: he was underestimated by five points on average. And, of course, Kamala Harris’ advantage in those New York Times, Sienna College polls were four points in each of these key battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.”
“The bottom line is this: If you have any idea, if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it,” he added. “Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift, like we’ve seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ballgame based upon where he is right now. And compare that to where he was in prior years.”
(h/t RCP Video)
Follow Jeff Poor on Twitter @jeff_poor
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