Hostage Envoy on if Deals Encourage Hostage-Taking: Numbers Are Incomplete, Skewed, and ‘Not Necessarily Going Up’

On Wednesday’s “PBS NewsHour,” Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Roger Carstens responded to a question on whether deals brokered by the Biden administration will incentivize countries to take more hostages by stating that “I might say that my case numbers are actually going down right now” and “my numbers are not necessarily going up” and “if they’re a steady state or going down, I would say that would be accurate.” But we can maybe have a conclusion in a decade when we’ve run all the numbers and the numbers are skewed a little bit by American hostages in Gaza.

Co-host Amna Nawaz asked, “We have seen a rise in foreign governments detaining innocent Americans abroad. And the criticism you always get is, the more you negotiate with people, you get them to see they can have a financial backer or a close political ally or billions in funds unfrozen by releasing Americans they’re holding, that it may incentivize more hostage-taking. How is that not the case? Doesn’t that seem to be proving true right now?”

Carstens responded, “If I were to actually lay all the facts out, I might say that my case numbers are actually going down right now. I think we’re in a new field. Probably, ten years from now, when we’ve had a chance to run all the numbers, we can maybe come up with a more conclusive — or, I should say, conclusion. But, right now, my numbers are not necessarily going up. They’re — if they’re a steady state or going down, I would say that would be accurate. Gaza, of course, with ten hostages being — or twelve hostages, down to eight that are still unaccounted for, that kind of skews the numbers a little bit. But, at the end of the day, people don’t get back unless you’re willing to make these deals. And President Biden and Secretary Blinken have shown great courage in making the hard decisions that bring Americans home, because unless you make that deal, that person is going to remain in a prison. There’s no other way to bring some of these people back other than to make a hard decision.”

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