On Monday’s “CNN Newsroom,” author, Washington Post columnist, and CNN political analyst Josh Rogin predicted that “everything that was in trouble about the U.S.-China relationship yesterday is going to get worse over the next weeks and months.” And stated that “We need to show up with our economic might, our diplomatic might, our soft power, and a robust military presence to deter China from invading Taiwan. And, to its credit, the Biden administration is doing a lot of that, but not enough, at least that’s the perception in the region. And that perception will remain.”
Rogin said, “I think that the problems in the U.S.-China relationship are structural, not personal. They’re not going to be solved by any one meeting. In fact, they’re all getting worse. 3 1/2 hours, that they talked, 3 1/2 hours, but no actual progress. They have an understanding, but no agreement, no overlap. China’s not going to stop menacing Taiwan. They’re not going to ease up on their human rights abuses of the Uyghurs or the Hong Kongers or the Tibetans. They’re not going to stop their unfair trade practices. In fact, everything that was in trouble about the U.S.-China relationship yesterday is going to get worse over the next weeks and months. That’s my prediction, frankly. Now, the headline for today is, okay, well, at least we’re talking to each other. That’s good. There’s no doubt that we have to understand each other. It’s great that they can sit down. In that system, Victor, Xi Jinping is the only man with power. He’s just consolidated power. He’s going to be dictator for life. He’s the guy you’ve got to talk to. So, the headline is, at least we’re talking, and that’s a low bar, frankly, but it’s better than nothing, I guess.”
Rogin added that Xi gaining power makes any sort of progress less likely and the structural issue between the U.S. and China is that China is expanding and wants the U.S. to leave Asia, but the U.S. doesn’t want to leave.
He concluded, “I’ve been to southeast Asia twice in the last couple of months. It’s very clear to me that these countries are watching our democracy. And, to be sure, I’m sure that they’re very happy that our democracy didn’t collapse. But, again, that’s a pretty low bar, Victor, when you think about it. And what the region really wants is more investment. They want an economic plan that responds to their needs. They want America to put its money where its mouth is. And that’s the missing part of our Asia strategy. Yes, we need to have a functioning democracy so that we have credibility. But A. I don’t know if that’s going to survive the next two, four, eight years, neither do you, neither does Joe Biden. And B. Functioning democracy is really the bare minimum. We need to show up in Asia with more than just three hours of talk. We need to show up with our economic might, our diplomatic might, our soft power, and a robust military presence to deter China from invading Taiwan. And, to its credit, the Biden administration is doing a lot of that, but not enough, at least that’s the perception in the region. And that perception will remain.”
Follow Ian Hanchett on Twitter @IanHanchett
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