Fmr. Obama Econ. Adviser Furman: Odds of a Recession in Next 18 Months Are Two-Thirds, Three-Quarters, We Can’t Add More Debt

On Thursday’s broadcast of CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard University and the Harvard Kennedy School Jason Furman, who served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama and on the Council of Economic Advisers and the National Economic Council under President Bill Clinton, said that “we need to not really pile any more onto the debt than we already have.” And stated that the odds of a recession over the next year-and-a-half are somewhere between two-thirds and three-quarters.

Furman said, “If you asked me on a year-and-a-half horizon, I would say there’s a two-thirds, three-quarters chance of a recession. I’ve been less worried all year about an imminent recession. I never thought the odds were that high for this year. But all of these interest rates are going to — increases are going to add up. They’re going to have a lagged effect. I think the Fed is doing the right thing, but I’m worried about where we’ll be, a year, year-and-a-half from now.”

He also stated, “I think there are some things that have been — the Inflation Reduction Act, I think that was good. That’s going to cut the deficit. But then all that deficit reduction was undone with the student loan bill. … President Biden is doing exactly the right thing in respecting the independence of the Fed. … I think President Biden needs to stick with that and we need to not really pile any more onto the debt than we already have.”

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