Appearing Thursday on the Fox Business Network, Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff, who served as former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that the odds of the United States falling into a recession are “at least 50/50.”
A transcript is as follows:
MARIA BARTIROMO: The question becomes, “are we going to see a recession?” There are a lot of opinions out there and debate about whether a recession will hit this year or next. Where are you on that?
KENNETH ROGOFF: I think the chances are at least 50/50 that we’ll see a recession over the next year. What I feel really worried about is, I don’t see how the Fed will both bring inflation down to say 2.5 to 3 percent and not have a massive recession. I think to do that, they’d have to hike rates 4, 5 percent at least, and, over the next year and a half, I don’t think they are going to do that. I suspect we’re going to end up with still high inflation, and, maybe even still a recession.