Moody’s Chief Economist: Recession Risk ‘about One in Three,’ ‘High Probability’ of Economic ‘Misstep’

On Friday’s broadcast of CNN’s “The Lead,” Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi warned that, even in light of the March jobs report, an economic “misstep is a high probability” and the risk of a recession is “one in three, at this point.”

Host Jake Tapper asked about his earlier warnings about the risk of a recession in the U.S. and whether there’s anything in the March jobs report that makes him change his outlook.

Zandi responded, “No. I think the economy is at risk because we have a very strong economy coming into full employment very quickly, we have very high inflation, inflation expectations due to the pandemic and the Russian invasion, and the Fed is raising interest rates. And in that kind of environment, a misstep is a high probability. So, I put recession risks at about one in three, at this point. I will say, though, Jake, the fundamentals of the economy are strong. You know, you don’t create a half-million jobs every month for over a year with an economy that’s not doing pretty well. So, I think odds are that we will navigate through, but it’s going to be a bit tricky.”

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