Honduran President Xiomara Castro expressed hope for positive dialogue with incoming President Donald Trump on immigration matters but also warned that if mass deportations materialize, the issue of U.S. military presence in the Central American country would have to be revisited.

During a Spanish language broadcast to Honduran citizens welcoming the New Year, Castro warned Trump to “not take unnecessary reprisals against our migrants.”

Castro began her remarks regarding the upcoming Trump administration in a hopeful manner: “I want to express that we hope the new democratically elected North American administration of President-Elect Donald Trump will be open to dialogue, constructive, and friendly.” However, her tone concerning future relations with the United States quickly turned ominous.

Castro went on to warn the Trump administration against the mass deportation of Honduran migrants that, as a rule, “offer great support to the North American economy.” Castro emphasized the potential consequences of mass deportations by the Trump administration, saying, “Faced with a hostile attitude of massive expulsions of our brothers, we will have to consider a change in our politics of cooperation with the United States, especially in the military camp where without paying a cent for decades they maintain military bases in our territory, that in this case, would lose all reason for existing in Honduras.”

The most significant presence of United States military forces is at Soto Cano Air Base just outside Tegucigalpa in central Honduras. According to the United States Military Joint Task Force-Bravo, more than 500 U.S. military members are stationed at the base. Once known as “Palmerola,” Soto Cano Air Base has operated since 1983. According to the Joint Task Force-Bravo website, the base conducts a variety of security missions in Central and South America and the Caribbean, supporting U.S. Government operations, countering transnational organized crime, and providing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief in the region.

Although Castro states that the United States has not paid a cent to utilize the base for decades, the Honduran President did not account for the millions of dollars in foreign aid the United States sends to the country annually.

According to foreignassistance.gov, the United States sent over $620 million during the first three years of the Biden-Harris presidency.

That amount does not account for the $4 billion in economic assistance sent to the Central American Northern Triangle region, which includes Honduras, as part of the Biden-Harris Root Causes Strategy.

In addition to the foreign assistance Honduras receives annually, more than 200 U.S. companies operating there make significant annual financial investments. The minimum monthly wage in 2024 was the equivalent of $329 U.S. dollars.

A likely concern for President Castro’s worry of Trump’s mass deportation plan could be the threat to remittances sent to the country from migrants in the United States. A reduction in remittances could have a drastic impact on the country’s economy. In 2023, Honduras received more than $9 billion in remittances from its nationals working in the United States. The annual total accounted for nearly 30 percent of the country’s gross domestic product in 2023.

Randy Clark is a 32-year veteran of the United States Border Patrol.  Prior to his retirement, he served as the Division Chief for Law Enforcement Operations, directing operations for nine Border Patrol Stations within the Del Rio, Texas, Sector. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) @RandyClarkBBTX.