Despite the resurgence of a few migrant caravans that have formed in the southern Mexican state of Chiapas, a post-election rush to the border after a Trump victory many expected would occur has yet to materialize.
According to a source within Customs and Border Protection, illegal border crossings since the November 5 election have only risen slightly. The source, not authorized to speak to the media, says the news is good but Border Patrol agents working along the border are not out of the woods yet.
The source attributes the failure of a visible surge to reach the immediate border region is the result of continued, albeit slightly reduced, law enforcement and military actions in Mexico keeping migrants from free, unrestricted travel to the United States border. Another less visible factor reducing illegal border crossings, according to the source, is the continued application of non-Congressionally approved Biden-Harris migrant parole programs that allow more than two thousand migrants to enter at official, legal land ports of entry and by way of international airports within the United States.
According to the source, intelligence reports indicate pressure is building in southern Mexico and the potential for a significant surge in migrant crossings is still possible. As reported by Breitbart Texas, as a precaution, law enforcement authorities in Texas are bracing for a final Biden-Harris border surge that may occur before inauguration day.
The CBP source tells Breitbart Texas the potential border migrant surge is entirely dependent on the continued efforts of Mexico’s National Institute of Migration (INM) and the country’s National Guard who have largely precluded migrants from utilizing Mexico’s dangerous network of freight trains, known as “La Bestia” or “the Beast” in English, to quickly reach the southern border at no cost.
“Our intelligence indicates there is still some use of the trains, but the numbers are no where near what we have seen before Mexico began impeding migrant travel late last year,” the source says.
“We know from as recently as December, and decades before, thousands of migrants have arrived at the U.S. border every day. Migrants can quickly reach the border by the thousands daily at no financial cost other than the danger inherent in riding the Bestia trains,” the source added.
According to the source, without the ability to hop on the trains at will without being impeded by Mexico’s INM or national guard troops, the migrants are reliant mostly on human smugglers and commercial bus and van lines to reach the border. “That limits how many can move through Mexico quickly,” the source emphasized.
In late December, enhanced law enforcement efforts in Mexico significantly reduced the number of migrants using the trains as part of a bi-national election year arrangement between the Biden/Harris administration and the Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador government in Mexico. The details of a secret deal between the two governments were never publicly released. As reported by Breitbart Texas, the results of the undisclosed deal was a visible, almost immediate drastic reduction in migrant crossings along the southwest border.
Those efforts in Mexico have begun to wain in some areas. Sources in Mexico have reported a noticed decrease in the presence of Mexico’s INM and National Guard soldiers at highway checkpoints along Highway 57 in the northern Mexican border state of Coahuila and along other routes to the United States border. In Piedras Negras, Breitbart Texas posted recently and noticed several normally staffed static National Guard posts had been abandoned along the Rio Grande.
The source within CBP tells Breitbart Texas the most important key to avoiding a large scale migrant influx will be a continuation of law enforcement efforts by the Mexican government to keep migrants off the Bestia freight trains.
“When those efforts cease, it’s all over until President Trump takes office in January, but if Mexico remembers the level of pressure placed upon AMLO by the Trump administration during his first term, they may understand it’s in their best interest to keep the large groups off the train,” the source emphasized.
Breitbart Texas visited the Casa del Migrant shelter in Piedras Negras, Mexico, and spoke to a staff member who say the number of migrants arriving in the Mexican border city across from Eagle Pass, Texas thus far has not reached the level experienced in the past. At the time of the visit in lead up to election day, most of the migrants at the shelter had secured appointments under the Biden Administration’s CBP One parole program app and were not destined to cross the Rio Grande illegally.
As reported by Breitbart Texas, in Eagle Pass, large migrant groups crossings have returned to the area, but involve mostly unaccompanied migrant children and Special Interest Migrants that may usually choose the Tucson Border Patrol Sector in Arizona as a crossing point according to the source. Special Interest Aliens are among the demographic of migrants who pay Mexican cartels the highest of smuggling fees and use surreptitious methods to traverse Mexico coordinated by the cartels.
According to the CBP source, if Mexico discontinues immigration enforcement along the Bestia freight train route, a return to a period of thousands of migrants crossing en masse along the southwest border could occur within days.
Randy Clark is a 32-year veteran of the United States Border Patrol. Prior to his retirement, he served as the Division Chief for Law Enforcement Operations, directing operations for nine Border Patrol Stations within the Del Rio, Texas, Sector. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) @RandyClarkBBTX.