AUSTIN, Texas — Statistician and journalist Nate Silver has released his forecasts for the 2014 gubernatorial elections around the country, and the results are less than encouraging for Democrat Wendy Davis’ hopes of being elected Texas’ next Governor. On his FiveThirtyEight blog, Silver predicts Davis’ chances of beating her Republican opponent Greg Abbott at less than one percent.
“And Democrats hoping for signs that Texas has turned purple will have to hold on for at least two more years,” writes Silver. “Wendy Davis, far behind in the polls, has only a 0.6 percent chance of beating Republican Greg Abbott.” Silver also echoes the views of many political observers that the Florida Governor’s race is neck and neck, with “former Republican turned Democrat” Charlie Crist “just slightly more likely than not to oust Republican Gov. Rick Scott from office,” and Republican Charlie Baker with an 80 percent chance of beating Democrat Martha Coakley in Massachusetts.
Silver describes his methodology on his blog as taking available public opinion polls, and weighting the data with adjustments that include recency, sample size, “pollster ratings” that he has assigned to different polling companies based on their historical accuracy and methodology, and “house effects” to counter any “systematic tendencies for polling firms to favor either the Democratic or Republican candidate.”
Polls of the Texas Governor’s race have consistently shown Davis trailing Abbott in excess of the margin of error, and she has been losing by double digits for over a month.
Silver also published his forecasts for the U.S. Senate races, predicting on Monday that there was a 73 percent chance that Republicans would gain the six seats they need for majority control of the Senate, as well as a 41.4 percent chance that they would win eight seats.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 4.
Follow Sarah Rumpf on Twitter @rumpfshaker.
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