Latest Alaska Poll Provides More Questions, Than Answers

This latest from Alaska Dispatch News seems curious, at best. Every recent major credible poll has Sullivan up by single digits. 

2 new polls raise Begich hopes in US Senate race

A string of recent polls through this week had shown all good news for Dan Sullivan, the Republican challenger for the U.S. Senate seat held by incumbent Democrat Mark Begich.

That changed Friday, with a poll released by Begich’s Democratic allies in the morning showing the race in a dead heat — and a second survey released by a Republican pollster in the afternoon showing Begich leading Sullivan 49 percent to 39 percent.

It’s also easy to understand Democrats pushing a poll showing a dead heat in a race still viewed as a toss up. But that a presumably GOP aligned poll – one paid for by a lobbyist – would suddenly show Begich up by ten makes no sense at all.

The second poll was conducted by a firm owned by Anchorage Republican pollster and consultant Marc Hellenthal, who was hired by several individuals including lobbyist Sam Kito Jr. 

Without at least one additional credible data point, at best, the second poll here looks like an outlier. It will be interesting to see what any new polling in the closing weeks indicates.