Many in media seem to have spent the first week of September trying to tamp down talk of a big GOP wave in November. Not Stu Rothenberg of Roll Call, who has been watching Washington politics forever.
While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.
But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain.
Whiles perhaps a tad inside baseball-ish, it’s really not that much so and many pundits are expressing similar thoughts, if not quite ready to put them down on paper. Stu Rothenberg has opted to put his money where his expertise is. Don’t be surprised when others begin to follow his lead.
… I’ve witnessed 17 general elections from my perch in D.C., including eight midterms, and I sometimes develop a sense of where the cycle is going before survey data lead me there. Since my expectations constitute little more than an informed guess, I generally keep them to myself.
This year is different. I am sharing them with you.
After looking at recent national, state and congressional survey data and comparing this election cycle to previous ones, I am currently expecting a sizable Republican Senate wave.