Breitbart Sports releases Value Add projections today to a college basketball backdrop of an over-the-top sex scandal at Louisville, the NCAA banning gambling sites from advertising, and Chris Mullins preparing to coach his first St. John’s game after losing his top two stars due to point guard Rysheed Jordan skipping his exams and the oft-in-troubl Chris Obekpa quitting because the coach’s toughness.
With so many distractions, the NCAA would like the focus on the preseason All-Conference teams and predictions coming out in this the final week before tipoff.
The NCAA strongly opposes gambling. But must realize part of the reason for March Madness growing to a billion-dollar event is the ease with which people can gamble on the results from office pools to Vegas. Likewise, I have fought and defeated attempts to expand gambling in the past, but am often reminded that creating the Value Add ratings to measure precisely how many points each college player is worth to his team can be used by others to apply to the point spread when a key player is injured.
With that as a backdrop, here are the top projected players, teams and conferences based on the calculations at www.valueaddbasketball.com, where you can find the value of thousands of players about to tip off, and tens of thousands going back more than a decade.
Nine Conferences Produce Most NBA Players
The website calculates the chance of each college player making the pros. Of the 4,000 college athletes now playing, about 46 will get on an NBA court, and the SEC appears to have the most NBA-level talent, likely resulting in eight or nine future NBA players or an “8.6.”
| Conf | Teams | NCAA | NIT | % Bid | Ave Rank | NBA Players |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B12 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 80% | 40 | 5.1 |
| ACC | 15 | 9 | 2 | 73% | 56 | 7.9 |
| P12 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 67% | 52 | 5.2 |
| B10 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 64% | 51 | 6.9 |
| BE | 11 | 4 | 3 | 64% | 64 | 3.6 |
| SEC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 57% | 62 | 8.6 |
| MWC | 11 | 2 | 2 | 36% | 137 | 1.8 |
| Amer | 11 | 3 | 1 | 36% | 106 | 1.4 |
| A10 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 29% | 119 | 1.2 |
| Other 23 | 240 | 23 | 14 | 15% | 223 | 4.4 |
| All Teams | 351 | 68 | 32 | 28% | 176 | 46.0 |
That is roughly twice as many NBA players as produced by 23 D1 conferences. While producing the most NBA talent, the SEC ranks 5th of the Big Nine conferences in the percentage of teams expected to get a bid to the NCAA or NIT (8 of 14 or 57%) and just ahead of the Big East for 5th in the average team Value Add ranking (62nd).
Top 25 Players Include Duos from UVa, Wichita St., and Gonzaga
While Monte Morris projects as the most valuable player (improves Iowa State by 11.08 points per game), he possesses only a 43% chance to make the NBA, less than Wisconsin’s Nigel Hayes (ranked 3rd but 72% chance at NBA) and Providence’s Kris Dunn (6th and 84% chance).
Three team have two players in the top 25: Gonzaga, Wichita State, and the University of Virginia.
| Rnk | Player | Team | Ht | Yr | Value Add | NBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morris, Monte 11 | Iowa St. | 6’2 | 3 Jr | 11.08 | 43% |
| 2 | Payton, Gary 1 | Oregon St. | 6’3 | 4 Sr | 10.68 | 32% |
| 3 | Hayes, Nigel 10 | Wisconsin | 6’8 | 3 Jr | 10.43 | 72% |
| 4 | Van Vleet, Fred 23 | Wichita St. | 6’0 | 4 Sr | 10.36 | 18% |
| 5 | Smith-Rivera, D’Vauntes 4 | Georgetown | 6’3 | 4 Sr | 9.68 | 10% |
| 6 | Dunn, Kris 3 | Providence | 6’3 | 3 Jr | 9.6 | 84% |
| 7 | Trimble, Melo 2 | Maryland | 6’3 | 2 So | 9.52 | 50% |
| 8 | Tarpey, Terry 25 | William & Mary | 6’5 | 4 Sr | 9.24 | 7% |
| 9 | Brogdon, Malcolm 15 | Virginia | 6’5 | 4 Sr | 9.21 | 15% |
| 10 | Ulis, Tyler 3 | Kentucky | 5’9 | 2 So | 9.17 | 44% |
| 11 | Wiltjer, Kyle 33 | Gonzaga | 6’10 | 4 Sr | 9.02 | 24% |
| 12 | Gill, Anthony 13 | Virginia | 6’8 | 4 Sr | 8.96 | 8% |
| 13 | Baldwin, Wade 4 | Vanderbilt | 6’3 | 2 So | 8.92 | 8% |
| 14 | Baker, Ron 31 | Wichita St. | 6’4 | 4 Sr | 8.85 | 42% |
| 15 | Collinsworth, Kyle 5 | Brigham Young | 6’6 | 4 Sr | 8.85 | 6% |
| 16 | Paige, Marcus 5 | North Carolina | 6’1 | 4 Sr | 8.81 | 37% |
| 17 | Sabonis, Domantas 11 | Gonzaga | 6’10 | 2 So | 8.7 | 68% |
| 18 | Peters, Alec 25 | Valparaiso | 6’9 | 3 Jr | 8.67 | 9% |
| 19 | Mason, Frank 0 | Kansas | 5’11 | 3 Jr | 8.66 | 10% |
| 20 | Martin, Hassan 12 | Rhode Island | 6’7 | 3 Jr | 8.65 | 10% |
| 21 | Dunham, Kellen 24 | Butler | 6’6 | 4 Sr | 8.64 | 5% |
| 22 | West, Jalan 12 | Northwestern St. | 5’10 | 4 Sr | 8.63 | 2% |
| 23 | Hield, Buddy 24 | Oklahoma | 6’4 | 4 Sr | 8.52 | 43% |
| 24 | Walkup, Thomas 0 | Stephen F. Austin | 6’4 | 4 Sr | 8.41 | 2% |
| 25 | Gathers, Rico 2 | Baylor | 6’8 | 4 Sr | 8.33 | 21% |
Kentucky and Duke Ranked No. 1 and No. 2
As good as those duos are, five teams are even better. Kentucky nudges out Duke for the top spot based on Value Add, while many are going with North Carolina for the top spot (Value Add ranks them fourth behind Arizona).
| Nat’l | Team | Value Add | NBA | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kentucky | 54.92 | 3.2 | SEC |
| 2 | Duke | 54.26 | 1.8 | ACC |
| 3 | Arizona | 50.94 | 0.8 | P12 |
| 4 | North Carolina | 50.19 | 2.7 | ACC |
| 5 | Kansas | 49.71 | 2.2 | B12 |
| 6 | Virginia | 45.33 | 0.6 | ACC |
| 7 | Utah | 44.17 | 1.0 | P12 |
| 8 | Wichita St. | 45.23 | 0.6 | MVC |
| 9 | Baylor | 42.84 | 0.7 | B12 |
| 10 | Villanova | 42.61 | 0.6 | BE |
| 11 | Maryland | 42.01 | 2.2 | B10 |
| 12 | Purdue | 41.87 | 0.6 | B10 |
| 13 | Oklahoma | 41.73 | 0.5 | B12 |
| 14 | Vanderbilt | 41.68 | 1.0 | SEC |
| 15 | Notre Dame | 41.09 | 1.1 | ACC |
| 16 | Ohio St. | 40.44 | 0.2 | B10 |
| 17 | Indiana | 40.22 | 1.4 | B10 |
| 18 | Louisville | 40.08 | 0.6 | ACC |
| 19 | Gonzaga | 39.87 | 1.0 | WCC |
| 20 | Oregon | 39.54 | 0.2 | P12 |
| 21 | Wisconsin | 39.34 | 0.7 | B10 |
| 22 | Michigan St. | 38.01 | 0.3 | B10 |
| 23 | Texas | 36.86 | 0.7 | B12 |
| 24 | California | 36.47 | 2.0 | P12 |
| 25 | Cincinnati | 36.41 | 0.2 | Amer |
Games tip off for most teams on November 13.
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