Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that he does not believe the U.S. is currently in a recession, citing the fact that job vacancies are still above 11 million, unemployment is near record lows, and hiring has been brisk.
The Fed pushed rates higher again in an effort to tame four-decade high inflation.
Better than expected data on inventories and the trade deficit was not enough to push GDPNOW into positive territory.
Outside of military spending, new orders rose by less than inflation, indicating a real contraction.
There’s no doubt that the Federal Reserve is going to raise its interest rate target at the end of tomorrow’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. What we do not know is how much they will raise.
Sales of new homes in the U.S. plunged 8.1 percent to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 590,000 in June, a far slower pace than expected by economists.
People are increasingly unhappy with economic conditions as inflation keeps rising and a recession looks increasingly likely.
“The outlook has darkened significantly since April. The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one,” the IMF’s chief economist said.
When inflation increases the cost of necessities like food and energy, it draws spending away from other parts of the economy. This dynamic – often referred to as the “inflation tax” – is now expected to take a big bite out of Walmart’s earnings.
We do not need permission from economic eggheads to declare this a terrible economy.
G.K. Chesterton once said that he owed his success to having listened respectfully to the very best advice, and then doing the exact opposite.
A worrying deterioration in the economy
The recession is calling, but it’s probably not paying its phone bill on time.
A bigger than expected drop in the index of leading economic indicators points to a recession around the end of the year.
Banks just purchase loans that would have been purchased—and eventually are purchased—by government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
First hike in 11 years.
The Philly Fed’s manufacturing index plunges even deeper into negative territory as high prices destroy demand and interest rates rise.
Everything is so expensive no one can afford to buy anything anymore.
Seventy-one percent of middle-class Americans say they are reducing spending at restaurants because of high prices.
“Falling housing affordability continues to take a toll on potential home buyers,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Both mortgage rates and home prices have risen too sharply in a short span of time.”
Higher rates and high prices are clobbering demand for mortgages.
It increasingly looks like it may take a recession to tame inflation—a recession that may already be underway.
The hotter-than-expected inflation report has increased expectations for a super-sized Fed hike at the end of this month.
Bank of America now sees a recession as likely and necessary to bring inflation back down to tolerable levels.
Will Biden try to blame inflation in pots, pans, bedding, kitchen furniture, appliances, toilet paper, house plants, dishes, and even garbage collection on greed and Putin?
The average weekly wages for working men and women are down 3.9 percent after inflation.
Bidenflation has prices rising at the fastest pace in decades.
Oil prices plunged on Tuesday ahead of President Joe Biden’s first trip to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Summer heat has not brought any relief from the worst inflation since 1981.
European vacation time!
Inflation has become a drag on real sales as high gasoline and grocery prices force families to cut back on purchases of other goods and services.
It will surprise absolutely no one that Twitter does not agree with Elon Musk’s announcement that he is terminating his acquisition of the social media company.
Consumers are getting squeezed by high gas prices and forced to cut back on other purchases.
The New York Fed’s consumer survey shows that more than half of Americans feel they are financially worse off than they were a year ago.
Is productivity suffering because so many people are working from home or because so many people are returning to the office?
There’s not much chance of it returning to positive territory this month, meaning a second consecutive quarterly economic contraction is likely.
Much higher than the 250,000 jobs expected.
What if we held a recession and no one lost their job?
Among white women without a college degree, 83% say inflation is very important.
Longer-term Treasury yields fell last week on recession feaers, dragging down mortgage rates.
