A formerly-confidential memo from half a century ago suggests that the Federal Reserve may have a failsafe in the event of a protracted debt ceiling fight.
The Fed wants to see inflation on a sustained path downward.
Could Linkedin and ZipRecruiter be the canaries in the coal mine for the U.S. labor market?
The U.S. is extremely unlikely to default on its debt, no matter how badly the negotiations over the debt ceiling break down.
Another “no landing” report.
A new paper says older homeowners dropped out of the labor force when home prices boomed.
Following a week of data showing unexpectedly resurgent inflation, fed funds futures contracts now indicate the Federal Reserve will hike its target rate up by half a percentage point in the coming months.
Trying to bring down inflation by opening the U.S. to more immigrants is a bit like trying to bail out a boat with a sieve.
Excluding fuel, import prices rose 0.3 percent in January after rising 0.4 percent in December. Economists had been expecting a 0.3 percent decline.
The U.S. economy experienced an inflationary boom in January—which means the Federal Reserve has a lot more work to do in its efforts to tame inflation.
Demand for labor is still super hot.
Inflation in the prices of goods and services produced in the U.S. rose at the fastest rate since June of 2022.
Debt is expected to be 118 percent of GDP by 2033.
The economic data this week — including the acceleration of consumer prices — all scream “no landing. But, as we have been warning, no recession now or in the near future likely means more persistent inflation and a worse recession later.
A funny thing happened on the way to the recession.
Americans started the year by spending far more than expected at retail businesses.
President Biden is planning to tap Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard to serve as director of the National Economic Council, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
The consumer price index rose by half a percentage point in January.
It’s likely that retail sales grew by more than expected as the year kicked-off.
The Federal Reserve is likely to have to keep raising interest rates to a “sufficiently restrictive level” to bring down inflation, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Monday. “I expect that ongoing increases will be appropriate to bring the federal
The strength of the labor market is giving rise to the idea that instead of a “soft landing” or a “hard landing,” the economy may be on track for “no landing” at all. In other words, the long-awaited recession may not be looming in our near future—but that also means inflation will not be coming down either.
Consumers are likely to “exercise greater caution” with their spending in the months ahead thanks to high prices and worries that unemployment is poised to rise.
The drive toward lower inflation likely hit a speed bump in January.
The number of people applying for jobless benefits in the U.S. inched up last week, the fourth consecutive week in which new claims have come in below 200,000. The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose to
One of the most bizarre moments of last night’s State of the Union address was President Joe Biden chastising oil and gas companies for returning capital to shareholders rather than investing in new production.
Used cars have been an inflation bellwether over the last two years. Suddenly and surprisingly, they are rising again.
Not since the Great Recession have so many Americans said their financial situation got worse over the past year.
Nice try, Joe.
The manufacturing sector is in a recession. Hasn’t anyone told Joe?
Conservatives do not have a dog in this fight.
President Joe Biden plans to call for quadrupling of the one percent surcharge on stock buybacks during his State of the Union address on Tuesday night.
This might be one of the most hated stock market rallies in history. The American public’s bearishness on stocks is accompanied by a dour view of our economic prospects over the next six months.
The inverted gap between short-term and longer-term U.S. Treasuries grew even wider on Monday, nearing the recent high hit in December. The yield on two-year Treasuries was 82 basis points above the yield on 10-year Treasuries midday on Monday, substantially
What if They Held a Recession and No One Showed Up (Because They Had Work That Day)? The incredibly strong January jobs figures all but rule out a recession in the first half of this year. They even may be strong enough
A huge surge in hiring in January defied expectations for the labor market to cool off a bit in the new year.
The arrival of soft wage data and stronger than expected productivity data this week has reignited hopes that the U.S. economy could achieve a “soft landing” in which inflation comes down steadily without a serious slump in the economy.
It was a very bad year for worker productivity.
Fed chairman Jerome Powell described the labor market as extremely tight. Jobless claims indicate that it may be getting even tighter.
Jerome Powell fumbled his first press conference of the year.
