South Korea said on Tuesday it is considering a set of “phased measures” in response to deepening North Korean military cooperation with Russia, possibly including weapons shipments to Ukraine.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) said last week that North Korea has decided to send some 12,000 troops to help Russia fight in Ukraine, with the first 1,500 already on the ground in Vladivostok for training.
NIS said the North Korean soldiers dispatched to Russia have been given Russian uniforms, weapons, and forged identity papers. The report was backed up with photos of suspicious Russian ship movements near a North Korean port, and what appeared to be North Korean soldiers massed near two locations in Russia last week.
South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun said two weeks ago it was “highly likely” that North Korean military officers have already been killed while working alongside the Russians in eastern Ukraine.
On Saturday, Ukrainian officials released a video that purportedly showed North Korean soldiers standing in line at an unknown location to pick up their Russian military uniforms and other gear. The video has not yet been verified by independent sources.
“The video clearly shows North Korean citizens being given Russian uniforms under the direction of the Russian military,” insisted Ihor Solovey, head of Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security.
“For Ukraine, this video is important because it is the first video evidence that shows North Korea participating in the war on the side of Russia – now not only with weapons and shells, but also with personnel,” Solovey said.
South Korea summoned the Russian ambassador on Monday to demand the “immediate withdrawal of all North Korean forces.”
Russian Ambassador Georgiy Zinoviev responded by reassuring Seoul that any “cooperation between Russia and North Korea” would not be “directed against the interests of South Korea’s security.”
North Korea said on Monday that reports of its troops sent to Russia were “groundless, stereotype rumors aimed at smearing the image of the DPRK and undermining the legitimate, friendly, and cooperative relations between sovereign states.”
South Korea was not mollified by these reassurances. Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo on Tuesday reiterated his government’s demand for “the immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops.”
“If the illegal military cooperation between North Korea and Russia continues, we will not stand by, but will respond firmly in collaboration with the international community,” he said.
Kim said North Korea was acting like a “criminal organization” by sending its troops to fight as “Russia’s mercenaries” while its people suffer. He said South Korea was considering a “phased response” that could escalate if North Korean troops are not withdrawn.
“We would consider supplying weapons for defensive purposes as part of the step-by-step scenarios, and if it seems they are going too far, we might also consider offensive use,” he said.
Kim said the other phases could include a mixture of “diplomatic, economic, and military measures,” but did not elaborate on what those measures might involve.
The administration of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has been openly debating the idea of sending weapons to Ukraine ever since North Korea and Russia signed a mutual defense treaty during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in June.
Putin said the “groundbreaking” treaty “provides for mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties.”
Analysts at the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Monday that despite its breezy dismissals, Russia is genuinely concerned that it might have pushed South Korea too far, and is now “scrambling to reduce tensions.”
The ISW noted that Russia previously made some friendly overtures to Seoul and is now “very concerned” about that diplomatic work going to waste as South Korea pivots toward “providing Ukraine with necessary military support.”
The U.S. and NATO have been cautious in their response to South Korea’s allegations about North Korean troops fighting for Russia. Neither has been willing to go on the record either confirming or denying Seoul’s report of North Korean troops training in Vladivostok.
NATO chief Mark Rutte said on Monday he discussed “NATO’s close partnership with Seoul, defense industrial cooperation, and the interconnected security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific” with South Korean President Yoon.
“North Korea sending troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine would mark a significant escalation,” he said.
U.S. officials have been skeptical of Ukrainian allegations that sizable number of North Korean mercenaries are already fighting for Russia, but they believe North Korean support personnel, engineers, and observers could be embedded with Russian units, helping to deploy the ballistic missiles Russia bought from Pyongyang.
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