U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is scheduled to meet with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun in Singapore this weekend, holding the first face-to-face bilateral defense meeting in 18 months.
The unusual dialogue comes only a week after China held aggressive military drills around Taiwan to “punish” the island for electing a president Beijing does not like.
Austin’s previous meeting was with one of Dong’s predecessors, Wei Fenghe, at a regional summit in Cambodia. Wei retired and was replaced by Gen. Li Shangfu in March 2023.
Li mysteriously vanished after only a few months on the job and was sacked without explanation in October 2023 with no immediate replacement, suggesting drama behind the scenes in the Chinese Communist Party hierarchy. In December, the Party appointed People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Admiral Dong Jun as Li’s belated successor.
Austin and Dong will meet on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, an Asian defense summit hosted annually by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). This year’s meeting will include sessions on the Myanmar junta and U.S. strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region, among other topics.
China has been harshly critical of those U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific, portraying them as a doomed effort by the United States to contain China’s rising power. Beijing has alternately bullied and cajoled Indo-Pacific nations to enter its orbit instead.
Taiwan is certain to be high on the list of subjects Austin and Dong will discuss. China staged several days of belligerent military drills, including simulated missile strikes and bombing runs that would have killed millions of civilians if they were real, after the inauguration of President William Lai Ching-te on May 20.
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The Chinese Communist Party denounced Lai as a “separatist,” the same language it used against his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, and vowed to continue its campaign of diplomatic isolation against Taiwan.
On Monday, China was able to block Taiwan from participating as an observer in the World Health Assembly (WHA) for the eighth year in a row, a disturbing demonstration of enduring clout from the Communist tyranny that unleashed the Wuhan coronavirus upon the world.
China is also throwing its weight around in the South China Sea, using force to secure claims on disputed islands that were decisively rejected by international courts almost a decade ago.
The government of the Philippines, an important U.S. ally, is increasingly concerned about China’s belligerent actions near islands within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.
On Wednesday, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., said China’s new rules of engagement for its coast guard forces, which could result in the detention of Filipinos or other foreign citizens, were an “escalation of the situation.” Marcos is scheduled to give the keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue.
Relations between the Pentagon and the Chinese Defense Ministry broke down after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) visited Taiwan in August 2022. China suspended high-level military talks with the United States in retaliation for Pelosi’s visit, but Chinese dictator Xi Jinping agreed to restart them when he met with President Joe Biden in San Francisco in November 2023.
Those military dialogues have not fully resumed yet, almost seven months after Xi made his promise, so Austin and Dong will likely discuss the next steps when they meet in Singapore. The Pentagon announced the Austin-Dong meeting last week, describing it as the follow-up to a teleconference between the two defense chiefs on April 16, but offered no details of the agenda for talks in Singapore.
Austin underwent a medical procedure at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on Friday night to deal with bladder issues after his treatment for prostate cancer in December. The Pentagon stated his procedure was successful and “no changes in his official schedule are anticipated at this time,” presumably including his trip to Singapore.
The South China Morning Post (SCMP) anticipated Dong will take a “tough stance” with Austin, rejecting all criticism of China’s moves against Taiwan and the South China Sea islands.
Dong was formerly deputy commander of PLAN forces in both the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Interestingly, he has not yet been granted membership in the Central Military Commission (CMC) of the Chinese Communist Party, suggesting his appointment to defense minister could be temporary or provisional. Without a CMC appointment, he has no decision-making power, which theoretically makes him a poor counterpart for Austin. This could also put a great deal of pressure on him to perform well against the U.S. defense chief.
On the other hand, Dong is not presently under U.S. sanctions – unlike his ill-fated predecessor Li, who was sanctioned by the administration of President Donald Trump in 2018 for buying weapons from Russia. Dong might therefore be in a better position to have constructive talks with Austin.
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“If Dong and Austin meet, they’re likely going to stand their ground on the respective national policies but are likely to agree to seek to maintain crisis stability where possible,” predicted Collin Koh of the Singapore-based S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Koh said “if” because the regime in Beijing has not yet confirmed a meeting between Austin and Dong will take place.
“The U.S. message will emphasize the importance of US alliances and partnerships. The U.S. government can also be expected to emphasize US interest in ensuring stability in the Taiwan situation and South China Sea,” said Rand Corporation senior defense researcher Timothy Heath.
“Although China is unlikely to alter its policies in response to the U.S. demands, it is still a good idea to have both sides meet in person and exchange frank views,” Health suggested.