Controversial Army Leader Prabowo Subianto Claims Victory in Indonesian Presidential Election

Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto claimed victory in the presidential election on Thursday, insisting that “quick counts” gave him more than 55 percent of the vote.

Neither of Prabowo’s opponents, former Govs. Anies Beswadan and Ganjar Pranowo, were immediately willing to concede defeat.

Anies said on Wednesday morning his campaign will “wait until the official result, and we will respect it.” He suggested his supporters should keep a close eye on the vote counters and promised that, for the time being, his campaign “is not over.”

According to the quick count, Anies is running far behind with 22 percent of the vote, while Ganjar holds third place with about 17 percent. Prabowo was the favorite in preelection polls, as he pointed out several times during his victory announcement.

The final vote count may not be completed for several weeks, as collecting ballots from Indonesia’s thousands of inhabited islets is a daunting task. A runoff election is possible if Prabowo ends up with less than 50 percent of the vote.

Prabowo, 72, made two previous runs for the presidency. When he lost the 2019 election and challenged the legitimacy of the results, his supporters rioted in Jakarta. The police were accused of using excessive force to put down the riots, during which at least ten people were killed under murky circumstances.

The former army commander and current defense minister seemed much more confident of ballot integrity Wednesday when he issued his victory proclamation before thousands of cheering supporters.

“All counts, all pollsters … showed figures that Prabowo-Gibran won in one round. This victory should be a victory for all Indonesians,” he said, referring to his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the current mayor of Surakarta and the oldest son of outgoing President Joko Widodo.

“We believe Indonesian democracy is running well. The people have determined, the people have decided,” he said.

Prabowo sought to put aside his past as a military strongman, promising to govern as a president “for all the people of Indonesia”:

Although we are grateful, we must not be arrogant, we must not be euphoric, we must remain humble. This victory must be a victory for all Indonesian people. I will lead together with Gibran to nurture, protect and defend all the people of Indonesia, regardless of tribe, ethnic group, race and religion and social background, the people of Indonesia are our responsibility to protect.

Gibran was seen as a risky choice for a running mate, as he is only 36 years old and lacks national political experience. His father’s popularity did not entirely rub off on him. Some of his constituents in Surakarta, generally called “Solo” by its residents, accused him of playing favorites and ignoring the plight of the city’s poor.

Others saw him as an extreme case of nepotism, winning office long before he was ready by trading on his family name and nostalgia for Joko Widodo’s time as mayor of Solo before he ran for president.

“He is a good kid, all of Jokowi’s children are. They are polite and hard workers, but I was surprised when he became mayor of Solo because I thought it was too soon for him to hold that kind of office,” a family friend remarked to Al Jazeera News before the presidential election.

Ian Wilson of Murdoch University told Al Jazeera on Wednesday that Prabowo reinvented himself from a fiery “populist” and “ultra-nationalist” to a more grandfatherly and reassuring figure for the 2024 election, and Gibran helped him bring home the enormous youth vote.

Wilson said:

Prabowo targeted a younger demographic by remaking his image through cartoon figures, as a cuddly uncle, casting a kind of a doubt over his human rights record, which for a younger generation is sort of an ancient history for the most part, and rather than trying to compete against the popularity of the incumbent he’s ridden on top of it.

Prabowo was the iron-fisted enforcer and son-in-law of Indonesia’s authoritarian second president, Suharto. The Suharto regime, which lasted from 1967 to 1998, was marred by corruption and ruthless suppression of dissent, especially during its later years.

Prabowo was accused of numerous human rights abuses during his service to Suharto, culminating in the 1998 abduction of more than 20 student democracy activists, a still-unsolved crime that ended Prabowo’s military career, although he was never convicted and denies he was responsible for the disappearances. 

Prabowo was banned from entering the United States in the 1990s due to his human rights record, but the Trump administration lifted that restriction, allowing Prabowo to visit the Pentagon as Indonesia’s defense minister in October 2020.

A Trump administration official said at the time:

Minister Prabowo is the appointed minister of defense of the now twice duly-elected president of Indonesia, which is the third-largest democracy in the world. He is our counterpart, of a very important partnership, and it is important that we engage with him and treat him as a partner.

CBS News marveled on Wednesday that Prabowo was able to shed his Darth Vader image by using TikTok to “re-brand himself as a cuddly, cat-loving grandfather — and one who isn’t ashamed to cut some pretty awkward dad-dance moves onstage at rallies.”

The makeover, combined with youthful Gibran’s presence on the ticket, was evidently enough to charm young voters who regard the Suharto dictatorship as ancient history. There have also been accusations that Widodo, who intends to continue wielding influence behind the scenes, rigged the election in a variety of ways to ensure his chosen successor would win.

In one example, Widodo’s son Gibran was only able to run for vice-president because the Indonesian constitutional court waived the minimum age of 40 for the office. Soon afterward, the court rejected a petition to set the maximum age for the presidency at 70, which would have disqualified Prabowo.

The chief justice of the constitutional court, who was removed from office after the Gibran ruling for failing to demonstrate “impartiality” and “integrity,” just happened to be Joko Widodo’s brother-in-law Anwar Usman. The court’s “honor council” lacked the authority to overturn the ruling that voided the minimum age for the vice presidency.

There have also been allegations of election fraud over the past few weeks, including a video of fraud allegations called “Dirty Vote” that scored millions of views on social media in a single day. The video accused Widodo administration officials of hindering the campaigns of the rival candidates and abusing state resources to promote Prabowo’s candidacy.

Widodo remains popular with Indonesian voters, thanks in part to a strong economy, and his endorsement would have probably been a huge benefit to Prabowo without any vote-rigging behavior. Many of the Prabowo-Gibran campaign posters prominently featured Widodo, as though he were the third candidate on the ticket. Prabowo’s goofball makeover softened his image just enough to make him palatable to Indonesians who want strong leadership but not an outright dictatorship.

Baswedan, the second-place presidential candidate and current governor of Jakarta, lamented the transition from Widodo to Prabowo and the establishment of a political dynasty as grim omens for Indonesian democracy.

“This means that there is a decline in trust, it means that our democracy is experiencing a decline in quality, it means that many legal rules are being bent,” he said on Wednesday.