President Joe Biden declined an invitation this week from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit New Delhi for Republic Day in late January.

Biden’s snub, a setback for Modi’s efforts to highlight deeper ties between India and the United States, could be a response to allegations that India planned to assassinate a Sikh separatist on U.S. soil.

According to U.S. Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti, Modi invited Biden to attend the ceremony for India’s Independence Day when they talked on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Delhi in September. Invitations for foreign leaders to join the prime minister for Republic Day are considered a great honor in India.

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told the Hindustan Times (HT) on Thursday that Biden would not be able to accept Modi’s invitation due to “scheduling demands.”

Sullivan said:

In June, and again in September, the President and Prime Minister affirmed a vision of the United States and India as among the closest partners in the world – and have worked steadily to advance our strategic partnership across all domains, including in critical and emerging technology, space, defense and much more. This work will continue.

HT noted it was unusual for the U.S. government to comment on an invitation that was not publicly extended or acknowledged beforehand. Sullivan’s remarks seem intended to soften the blow of Biden’s refusal. He made a point of mentioning the “close personal bond” between Biden and Modi and their “shared commitment to advancing the aspirations of their people for a prosperous future.”

U.S. President Joe Biden (L) engages in a conversation with Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi on the opening ceremony of the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Bali’s southern peninsula Nusa Dua, Indonesia, on November 15, 2022 (Prasetyo Utomo/Antara Photo/Pool/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images).

“The President looks forward to the next meeting of the Quad leaders, and to continue our efforts to deliver results for the region and advance a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Sullivan concluded.

The Quad, or Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, is a forum that includes the United States, India, Australia, and Japan. India is scheduled to host the next Quad meeting in 2024.

U.S. officials told HT that Biden’s decision not to attend Republic Day celebrations was not meant as a rebuke for the controversy over Indian national Nikhil Gupta, whose indictment on charges of conspiring to murder a U.S.-based Sikh separatist leader was announced in November. Prosecutors said Gupta was recruited for the assassination by a member of the Indian government in May 2023.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly accused India of murdering another Sikh separatist leader on Canadian soil in September, touching off a major diplomatic feud between India and Canada.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomes Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau upon his arrival at Bharat Mandapam convention center for the G20 Summit, in New Delhi, India, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023 (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, Pool).

Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow at Delhi’s Observer Research Foundation, disagreed with the explanations provided by U.S. officials and argued Biden’s snub “most likely” was a result of the Gupta controversy.

“Biden is also not doing too well in his electoral prospects, and he may not want to travel too much,” Joshi added in an interview with the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on Friday. He also thought Biden was distracted by the Israel-Hamas war.

Joshi concluded that the Gupta case will not “mar U.S.-India relations” in a severe way, but “there will be a certain chill.”

“Biden is unlikely to take a trip to the Indo-Pacific before the 2024 election, and since he was just in India a few months ago. I think the White House likely viewed this as a secondary priority,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) senior fellow Zack Cooper told the SCMP, deemphasizing the Gupta factor. 

Cooper also thought Biden might want to stay in Washington as much as possible in January in case a budget and government shutdown crisis occurs.

President Joe Biden looks out the window of the Oval Office to the Rose Garden of the White House (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz).

“Fundamental structural factors are driving Washington and Delhi closer together – particularly shared concerns about China’s rise,” he said, agreeing with Joshi’s opinion that the long-term trajectory of U.S.-India relations remains unchanged.

Nikkei Asia quoted a U.S. official who said Modi wanted to schedule the Quad meeting to coincide with Biden’s Republic Day invitation, but the date was “too close to the State of the Union, and the political calendar does not allow foreign travel at this time.”

“President Biden is not going to India next month. The Quad will be rescheduled for later in the year,” the U.S. official said.