Taliban Inks Major Russian Fuel Deal – but Leaves Unclear How It Will Pay

The Taliban terrorist organization, operating as the de facto government of Afghanistan, signed a major agreement with Russia last week that would significantly reduce pressure on the country’s fuel supply — but at an unclear price, the American outlet Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) noted on Wednesday.

The Taliban became the government of Afghanistan, returning after a 20-year ouster by the United States, in August 2021, the result of leftist American President Joe Biden choosing to break an agreement with the terrorists and extend the decades-long Afghan War last year. Biden abruptly withdrew all American troops from the country in August after refusing to do so in May, the deadline that Taliban leaders had agreed upon with former President Donald Trump. Biden withdrew troops so haphazardly that the Taliban ended up with a windfall of American military equipment, which the jihadists have gleefully displayed in victory parades throughout the past year.

As no government officially recognizes the Taliban, a Sunni jihadist terrorist group, as the government of Afghanistan, the group does not have access to Afghan government funds otherwise available to political leaders and has been cut out of receiving aid from institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). Some regimes of rogue states – notably China and Iran – have identified the Taliban as a form of “interim” government, allowing some negotiations.

Russia, however, classifies the Taliban as a terrorist organization, a designation it does not have in the United States, making formal business ties illegal. Moscow did welcome a Taliban “diplomat” in March meant to maintain lines of communication open with the Kabul regime and, in doing so, insist that the Taliban receive a seat at the United Nations representing Afghanistan and be treated as a government. Russian officials have not moved to delist the Taliban as a terrorist organization, however.

Russia has been facing significant economic struggles in the past year as a result of its escalation in the eight-year invasion of Ukraine, which resulted in much of the West imposing sanctions on key Russian exports such as fertilizers and oil. The sanctions forced Russian products to drop in price, which, however, has created a formidable market of nations interested in discounted products that are not impacted by the Ukraine war, most prominently India, China, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia.

Despite this, both the Taliban and the Russian government confirmed last week that they had agreed on a deal to ship Russian oil, natural gas, and wheat to Afghanistan. Russian news agency Tass reported that the “preliminary agreement” would allow the Taliban to purchase “1 million tonnes of petrol, 1 million tonnes of diesel fuel, 500,000 tonnes of LNG and 2 million tonnes of wheat every year.”

Tass noted that Zamir Kabulov, Russian special presidential envoy for Afghanistan, confirmed that the agreement exists last week after Taliban jihadists announced the news.

The Taliban’s “Ministry of Commerce and Industry” boasted in confirming the deal that it had received a “special discount” for agreeing to use the Russian ruble to pay for the goods. According to Afghanistan’s Khaama Press, the Taliban claimed that the agreement would “be put into effect for an unspecified trial period, following which, if both parties are content with it, they will sign a long-term contract.”

“We are trying to immediately import it to Afghanistan via railway or trucks before the winter to prevent the rise in prices in the winter,” Abdul Salam Javad, a Ministry spokesman, claimed last week, according to Afghanistan’s Tolo News.

“It seems to be more like a very informal kind of deal, a barter kind of deal, where Russia will supply oil and gas and [Afghanistan] will supply whatever they can in return,” economist Narendra Taneja told RFE/RL, noting that public information on the agreement notably omits how the Taliban will pay for the products.

The outlet noted that the Taliban will likely attempt to pay for the products in question in Russian rubles, which makes them valuable clients to Moscow now that sanctions have made it difficult for Russia to maneuver financially using the U.S. dollar. How much money the Taliban has to offer, however, remains unclear. Publicly available information on the agreement also does not clarify how Russian government officials or corporations will be able to receive money from the Taliban given that it is an outlawed organized crime syndicate according to Russian law, as Tass makes explicit in its reporting.

The Taliban has taken modest steps in increasing foreign trade through the sale of products such as figs and pine nuts, which China has shown particular interest in purchasing. For years, however, the Taliban relied on Afghanistan’s most lucrative crop – poppy and its opium derivates – to fund the war against America. Taliban leaders claimed to have banned the cultivation of poppy in April, but many Taliban observers have reason to believe this will do little to cut off a critical economic engine in the country.

RFE/RL also speculated that Russia may be providing discounted goods in exchange for future access to Afghanistan’s plentiful supply of lithium and other rare-earth metals, estimated to be worth as much as $3 trillion. Rare-earth metals are critical to the development of “green” energy products such as rechargeable batteries and solar panels but are tremendously toxic to mine. China, the world’s worst polluter, is currently the top source of rare-earth metals in the world.

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