China Worries Kazakhstan Chaos Will Hinder Its ‘Belt and Road’ Ambitions

China offered increased “law enforcement and security” support for Kazakhstan on Sunday, to help it suppress the remainder of the protest movement that broke out on January 1 and was brutally crushed with Russian military assistance over the weekend.

Chinese state media fretted that unrest in Kazakhstan could imperil Beijing’s ambitions to dominate the region through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure project.

Large political demonstrations are rare in authoritarian Kazakhstan, but massive protests broke out after fuel prices were doubled by the government on January 1.

The price increase opened the floodgates for Kazakhs – especially those living in poor rural areas who flocked to cities to participate in demonstrations – to vent numerous other pent-up frustrations, including challenges to the legitimacy of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and his predecessor Nursultan Nazarbayev, who still exercises enormous power behind the scenes.

The protests turned violent as demonstrators vandalized government buildings. Tokayev called in help from Russia and the regional Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) military alliance. A large number of Russian troops were quickly deployed in Kazakhstan, raising fears in the United States and Europe of human rights violations.

Those fears appear to have been well-founded, as Kazakh authorities on Sunday said 164 people were killed during the riots, including three children. Tokayev gave his forces shoot-to-kill orders on Friday. 

Kazakhstan was recently elected to the U.N. Human Rights council, but the organization has been silent on the use of force against demonstrators. The U.N., however, did express “concerns” Monday because some of the heavily-armed soldiers deployed on the streets of Kazakhstan’s largest city Almaty wore blue U.N. peacekeeper helmets.

China also offered assistance to its neighbor Kazakhstan, an offer reiterated Monday even as Tokayev declared victory over the “coup.” 

“Recent turmoil in Kazakhstan shows that the situation in Central Asia is still facing severe challenges, and it once again proves that some external forces do not want peace and tranquility in our region,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Monday, echoing Tokayev’s claim that the protests were a coup attempt organized by Western powers.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his opposite number in Kazakhstan, Mukhtar Tileuberdi, during a phone call on Monday that China would stand with Tokayev’s government to “jointly oppose the interference and infiltration of any external forces.”

Chinese dictator Xi Jinping on Friday offered his support to Tokayev against what Xi described as a “color revolution” – a euphemism for Western powers allegedly seeking to destabilize authoritarian regimes by fomenting protests under the guise of human rights activism.

Russian President Vladimir Putin used the same rhetorical framework on Monday when he said Russian troops helped Tokayev suppress an uprising orchestrated by foreign powers.

“Of course, we understand the events in Kazakhstan are not the first and far from the last attempt to interfere in the internal affairs of our states from the outside. The measures taken by the CSTO have clearly shown we will not allow the situation to be rocked at home,” Putin said in a virtual conference with other CSTO members.

International analysts suspected China is nervous about allowing any democratic uprising along its borders to succeed, because Chinese dissidents might be inspired to rise up against the Communist regime. 

China’s state-run Global Times on Sunday voiced a more immediate concern, namely that unrest in Kazakhstan and other former satellites of the Soviet Union could interfere with “China’s economic and trade cooperation,” especially its Belt and Road infrastructure project.

“Given the importance of Kazakhstan to China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its energy imports, the Central Asian state’s stability represents a high stakes issue for China, it is essential for China to not only offer Kazakhstan necessary support to help it restore order but also take this opportunity to actively coordinate security and stability affairs with neighboring countries,” the Global Times wrote.

The Global Times explained Kazakhstan is a major regional transportation hub, including for gas and oil shipments. China’s investments in Kazakhstan surged by 44 percent to $580 million last year.

“Moreover, China-Kazakhstan cooperation is also of strategic significance to the economic development of the Xinjiang region. China has long hoped that Kazakhstan, the first stop on China’s Silk Road Economic Belt, could extend its influence and boost Xinjiang’s connectivity,” the Chinese Communist paper added ominously.

Xinjiang is the home of the oppressed Uyghur Muslims, who have been herded into concentration camps and sold as forced labor by the brutal Chinese government. The Global Times article indicated China sees Kazakhstan as part of a transportation network that could help China evade Western sanctions against its slave labor camps. Conversely, Beijing is clearly worried that a successful uprising in Kazakhstan could prompt similar unrest in Xinjiang.

There are some indications Tokayev used the protests as cover to move against his mentor Nursultan Nazarbayev, the 81-year-old former Soviet strongman who retained considerable influence in the government despite turning the presidency over to Tokayev in 2019.

Tokayev fired two more top security officials linked to Nazarbayev on Sunday, and the terminated individuals seem to have disappeared – along with Nazarbayev himself. The president’s office responded to rumors of a power play by insisting Nazarbayev and Tokayev are still on “the same side of the barricades.”