Moneyball: Orioles Claim Playoffs with Best Bang Per Buck

The Baltimore Orioles are the best deal in baseball, clinching the playoffs Tuesday despite $107 million in salaries that projected an 81-81 season.

They are on pace to win 17 more than their salaries justify, the 25th-best deal since 1998. This season’s Red Sox (-16 wins, 476th “best deal”) and Texas Rangers (-22 wins, 504th of 510 seasons) are among the worst deals of all time.

In raw terms, teams win an average of one game for every $1.4 million dollars spent. However, there is obviously a huge law of diminishing returns in baseball, in which there is no salary cap. In 2005, the Yankees spent $205 million in salary which would equate to $326 million dollars when you factor that salaries are now 58% higher than in 2005. Obviously, you cannot just divide their salary by $1.4 million and conclude they should have won 229 games in an 162 game schedule. The actual formula that projects a team’s wins is:

Projected Wins = 54.5 + (3 x (Squareroot of ((Salary / Average Salary) * 100)))

The following chart shows the best 25 deals and the worst 10 deals since 1998, with all 2014 teams and where they rank.

Billy Beane has put together five of the top 12 deals including the unbelievable record of more than 100 wins twice in seasons in which Oakland’s salaries were below $40 million, which would translate to below $70 million even if adjusted for 2014 averages. These were the teams that inspired the Moneyball book and movie. 

The A’s project to win 13 more games than their salaries justify this year–third best behind the Orioles and Angels. However, it has become much more difficult for a team to exceed projections by the margins Beane achieved now that most of his statistical valuations of players are used by all teams.

Thanks to the Steve the Ump website for putting together the salary lists here, which I then adjusted to 2014 equivalents for this table.

Best deals	Year	Team	Wins	Salary (2014 equiv)	projW	Above $ proj
1	2001	Seattle Mariners	116	135,122,916	83.7	32.3
2	2001	Oakland Athletics	102	60,389,374	74.1	27.9
3	2002	Oakland Athletics	103	67,734,774	75.2	27.8
4	1998	New York Yankees	114	184,031,684	88.6	25.4
5	2008	Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays	97	56,340,352	73.4	23.6
6	2004	St. Louis Cardinals	105	127,033,628	82.9	22.1
7	2013	Oakland Athletics	96	67,618,570	75.2	20.8
8	2000	Chicago White Sox	95	64,393,521	74.7	20.3
9	2012	Oakland Athletics	94	65,037,986	74.8	19.2
10	2011	Arizona Diamondbacks	94	66,410,881	75.0	19.0
11	2012	Washington Nationals	98	95,533,685	79.1	18.9
12	2003	Oakland Athletics	96	81,468,819	77.2	18.8
13	2002	Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels	99	105,361,137	80.3	18.7
14	2002	Minnesota Twins	94	68,665,542	75.3	18.7
15	1998	Atlanta Braves	106	172,945,287	87.6	18.4
16	2011	Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays	91	51,915,755	72.6	18.4
17	1998	Houston Astros	102	135,378,706	83.8	18.2
18	2007	Cleveland Indians	96	85,928,887	77.8	18.2
19	2010	San Diego Padres	90	47,812,644	71.9	18.1
20	2005	Cleveland Indians	93	66,201,182	75.0	18.0
21	2012	Cincinnati Reds	97	96,552,578	79.2	17.8
22	2010	Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays	96	90,976,587	78.5	17.5
23	2013	Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays	92	64,531,901	74.7	17.3
24	2006	Minnesota Twins	96	94,110,399	78.9	17.1
25	2014	Baltimore Orioles	98	107,406,623	80.6	17.1
34	2014	Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels	102	155,692,000	85.9	15.6
60	2014	Oakland Athletics	90	83,401,400	77.5	12.8
81	2014	Kansas City Royals	89	92,034,345	78.6	10.5
84	2014	Washington Nationals	94	134,704,437	83.7	10.3
91	2014	Pittsburgh Pirates	86	78,111,667	76.7	9.7
116	2014	Seattle Mariners	87	92,081,943	78.6	8.3
122	2014	St. Louis Cardinals	89	111,020,360	81.0	8.0
136	2014	Florida/Miami Marlins	79	47,565,400	71.9	7.0
154	2014	Cleveland Indians	83	82,534,800	77.4	5.8
173	2014	Milwaukee Brewers	85	103,844,806	80.1	4.6
193	2014	Detroit Tigers	90	162,228,527	86.5	3.6
199	2014	San Francisco Giants	89	154,185,878	85.7	3.3
217	2014	Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays	79	77,062,891	76.6	2.3
255	2014	Houston Astros	72	44,544,174	71.3	0.6
273	2014	Toronto Blue Jays	83	132,628,700	83.5	(0.3)
276	2014	New York Mets	78	89,051,758	78.2	(0.4)
278	2014	Atlanta Braves	80	110,897,341	81.0	(0.5)
282	2014	Los Angeles Dodgers	92	235,295,219	93.1	(0.8)
319	2014	San Diego Padres	75	90,094,196	78.4	(3.4)
350	2014	Chicago White Sox	73	91,159,254	78.5	(5.1)
357	2014	Cincinnati Reds	76	112,390,772	81.2	(5.5)
370	2014	Chicago Cubs	72	89,007,857	78.2	(6.4)
395	2014	New York Yankees	82	203,812,506	90.4	(8.3)
405	2014	Minnesota Twins	69	85,776,500	77.8	(9.1)
455	2014	Philadelphia Phillies	75	180,052,723	88.3	(13.7)
466	2014	Arizona Diamondbacks	67	112,688,666	81.2	(14.7)
467	2014	Colorado Rockies	64	95,832,071	79.1	(14.8)
476	2014	Boston Red Sox	71	162,817,411	86.6	(15.8)
501	2012	Boston Red Sox	69	203,417,018	90.4	(21.4)
502	2010	Seattle Mariners	61	124,437,450	82.6	(21.6)
503	2002	Milwaukee Brewers	56	85,843,165	77.8	(21.8)
504	2014	Texas Rangers	62	136,036,172	83.8	(21.9)
505	2011	Houston Astros	56	87,525,456	78.0	(22.0)
506	2003	New York Mets	66	189,933,683	89.2	(23.2)
507	2002	Detroit Tigers	55	93,968,944	78.9	(23.9)
508	2008	Seattle Mariners	61	151,284,361	85.4	(24.4)
509	2004	Arizona Diamondbacks	51	117,915,895	81.8	(30.8)
510	2003	Detroit Tigers	43	79,697,422	77.0	(34.0)