Selection Sunday: Top 68 Value Add Players

The following are the 68 best players in the country as of Selection Sunday, the day that the top 68 teams are announced. Doug McDermott is by far the best offensive player in the country at www.valueaddbasketball.com, with his 8.77 calculation indicating that he adds almost nine points a game to what Creighton would score with a good bench player in his place. Shabazz Napier (UConn) and Delon Wright (Utah) are worth just over half of McDermott’s offense, but they both take multiple points off the board for oppponents to be the top two overall players.

The Value Add system was covered by many outlets when first introduced, including an excellent comprehensive piece by Sports Illustrated (click here). The system is a precise measurement of how many points a player adds to his team’s score per game over the player who takes his place. Every score (three-pointer, two-pointer or foul shot), assist, offensive rebound, foul drawn, etc. helps a team score while every turnover and missed shot costs the team points. On defense, every steal, blocked shot, defensive rebound, turnover forced and opponent’s missed shot takes points off the board while every basket or offensive rebound allowed adds to the opponent’s score. When all calculated together with the help of the stats at www.kenpom.com results in the player’s offensive and defensive combination.

The ratings are often ahead of the critics, finding surprise players early. Michigan State fans were outraged when Michigan’s Nik Stauskas rated ahead of all Michigan State players earlier in the season. He went on to be selected Big Ten Player of the Year a couple of month’s later by the coaches. However, there is good news for Michigan State fans. Gary Harris edged him out by one spot in the ratings below.

Many have focused only on Value Add’s Offensive Rating, but the overall rating is the indicator of the player’s overall ability to change the score of a game. Other Value Add stories will be posted to help with your brackets. Because this is a precise measurement of points added or taken away, it is important to look at any players that are injured before picking them to win a game in your bracket. If you believe the team you want to pick is three points better than the opponent they draw, but they have a player injured with a Total Value Add of five, then you would assume they are actually two points worse than the opponent.

The Value Adds of all tournament players will be listed by region after the Selections, but below are the Top 68. Fro tournament purposes, you will also want to look at any player who is a Senior or Junior guard (JR G or SR G), and any player expected to be in the NBA with two years (see far right column). In the tournament it is also often better to have a team with the better top three players, as bench players play less in tournament games. There are 3500 players in the www.valueaddbasketball.com database, so even many great players do not make this top 68 list.

Rnk	Player	Team	Ht	Yr	G	Off	Total	NBA?
1	Delon Wright	Utah	6′ 5″	Jr	G	5.32	8.71	PG
2	Shabazz Napier	Connecticut	6′ 1″	Sr	G	4.93	7.98	PG
3	Doug McDermott	Creighton	6′ 8″	Sr		8.77	7.87	PF
4	Billy Baron	Canisius	6′ 2″	Sr	G	7.26	7.79
5	Sean Kilpatrick	Cincinnati	6′ 4″	Sr	G	5.87	7.52
6	TJ Warren	North Carolina St.	6′ 8″	So		5.84	7.42	SF
7	Jordan Adams	UCLA	6′ 5″	So	G	4.70	7.04	SG
8	Marcus Smart	Oklahoma St.	6′ 4″	So	G	3.46	6.91	PG
9	Trevor Releford	Alabama	6′ 0	Sr	G	5.03	6.91	PG
10	Xavier Thames	San Diego St.	6′ 3″	Sr	G	5.15	6.83
11	Russ Smith	Louisville	6′ 0	Sr	G	4.45	6.83	PG
12	Fred Van Vleet	Wichita St.	5′ 11″	So	G	5.29	6.38
13	KJ McDaniels	Clemson	6′ 6″	Jr		3.14	6.34	SF
14	Briante Weber	VCU	6′ 2″	Jr	G	1.85	6.33	PG
15	Jabari Parker	Duke	6′ 8″	Fr		4.53	6.28	SF
16	Frank Kaminsky	Wisconsin	7′ 0	Jr		5.12	6.09
17	Nick Johnson	Arizona	6′ 3″	Jr	G	4.15	6.02	SG
18	Jarnell Stokes	Tennessee	6′ 8″	Jr		4.37	5.97	PF
19	Lamar Patterson	Pittsburgh	6′ 5″	Sr	G	4.48	5.91	PG
20	Montrezl Harrell	Louisville	6′ 8″	So		3.61	5.90	PF/C
21	RJ Hunter	Georgia St.	6′ 5″	So		4.43	5.85
22	Langston Galloway	Saint Joseph’s	6′ 2″	Sr	G	5.46	5.71	SG
23	Ryan Watkins	Boise St.	6′ 9″	Sr		5.56	5.62
24	Kyle Anderson	UCLA	6′ 9″	So		3.45	5.61	SF
25	Joseph Young	Oregon	6′ 2″	Jr		6.18	5.60
26	Cameron Bairstow	New Mexico	6′ 9″	Sr		5.18	5.59
27	Marcus Paige	North Carolina	6′ 1″	So	G	4.87	5.58
28	Keifer Sykes	Green Bay	5′ 11″	Jr	G	5.13	5.55
29	Kendall Williams	New Mexico	6′ 4″	Sr	G	5.02	5.54
30	Michael Frazier	Florida	6′ 4″	So		4.37	5.54
31	Tyler Ennis	Syracuse	6′ 2″	Fr	G	3.67	5.54	PG
32	Perry Ellis	Kansas	6′ 8″	So		4.79	5.51	SF
33	Kendrick Perry	Youngstown St.	6′ 0	Sr	G	5.59	5.49	PG
34	Javon McCrea	Buffalo	6′ 7″	Sr		4.04	5.49
35	Jordan McRae	Tennessee	6′ 6″	Sr	G	4.76	5.46	SG/SF
36	Juwan Staten	West Virginia	6′ 1″	Jr	G	4.98	5.30
37	Jalan West	Northwestern St.	5′ 10″	So	G	4.45	5.24
38	D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera	Georgetown	6′ 3″	So		5.24	5.22
39	TJ Bray	Princeton	6′ 5″	Sr		5.92	5.20
40	Alan Williams	UC Santa Barbara	6′ 7″	Jr		2.87	5.17
41	Taylor Braun	North Dakota St.	6′ 7″	Sr		5.57	5.14
42	Khem Birch	UNLV	6′ 9″	Jr		3.04	5.14	PF/C
43	Larry Nance	Wyoming	6′ 8″	Jr		2.51	5.09
44	Justin Jackson	Cincinnati	6′ 8″	Sr		1.41	5.05
45	Gary Harris	Michigan St.	6′ 4″	So	G	3.80	5.04	SG
46	Nik Stauskas	Michigan	6′ 6″	So		6.59	4.99	SF
47	Tymell Murphy	FIU	6′ 5″	Sr	G	3.14	4.95
48	Deonte Burton	Nevada	6′ 1″	Sr	G	4.92	4.93	PG
49	Shawn Jones	Middle Tennessee	6′ 8″	Sr		3.06	4.91
50	Bryce Cotton	Providence	6′ 1″	Sr		6.52	4.91
51	Jacob Parker	Stephen F. Austin	6′ 6″	Jr		3.94	4.89
52	Josh Scott	Colorado	6′ 10″	So		4.26	4.85
53	Markel Brown	Oklahoma St.	6′ 3″	Sr		4.60	4.85
54	Joel Embiid	Kansas	7′ 0	Fr		2.24	4.84	C
55	Malcolm Brogdon	Virginia	6′ 5″	So		3.41	4.84
56	Willie Cauley-Stein	Kentucky	7′ 0	So		2.19	4.81	C
57	Egidijus Mockevicius	Evansville	6′ 10″	So		2.89	4.78
58	Andrew Wiggins	Kansas	6′ 8″	Fr		4.17	4.76	SF
59	Seth Tuttle	Northern Iowa	6′ 8″	Jr		4.40	4.76
60	TJ McConnell	Arizona	6′ 1″	Jr		2.61	4.73
61	Rayvonte Rice	Illinois	6′ 4″	Jr		2.43	4.72
62	Aaron Craft	Ohio St.	6′ 2″	Sr	G	1.37	4.71	PG
63	Julius Randle	Kentucky	6′ 9″	Fr		3.41	4.67	SF/PF
64	Ron Baker	Wichita St.	6′ 3″	So	G	3.63	4.67
65	Sam Dower	Gonzaga	6′ 9″	Sr		3.84	4.59
66	Cory Jefferson	Baylor	6′ 9″	Sr		3.78	4.56	PF
67	Mike Moser	Oregon	6′ 8″	Sr		2.70	4.51	PF
68	CJ Wilcox	Washington	6′ 5″	Sr	G	4.83	4.47	SG