Today, Gallup released new job approval polls taken in all fifty states with the headline, “Thirteen States and D.C. Give Obama Majority Approval.”
You can also read that as “Obama Below Majority Approval In 37 States”.
The problem for Obama is that his approval numbers are only above 50% in states we already know he’s going to win in November. But in the swing states he must take in order to win the opportunity to finish the job of destroying our country, the President is well below 50.
Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania — 46%.
Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina — 45%
Ohio — 44%.
Colorado, New Hampshire — 43%.
Gallup explains how dire these numbers are for Obama:
The 50% approval mark is significant because post-World War II incumbent presidents who have been above 50% job approval on Election Day were easily re-elected. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have more uncertain re-election prospects. Historically, two presidents below 50% in their final approval rating before the election — George W. Bush and Harry Truman — won, and three, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush, lost.
That’s a somewhat simplistic way to look at it. On election day, according to Real Clear Politics, George W. Bush’s approval rating was 49.7%. Today, Obama’s approval rating is 47.4%, and chances are an incumbent is lucky if they haul in more than a single point over his approval rating on election day.
We also have an electoral college, and in the states Obama must win, he’ll have a lot of ground to gain if he’s going to get anywhere close to 50.
Moreover, things improved for Bush in Iraq as election day neared — and Iraq was the major issue of that cycle. This year, the major issue is the econom,y and no one believes that’s going to improve. In fact, many believe it’s going to get worse.
Finally, there’s the fact that Obama is in this much trouble after already firing his Big Guns on Bain and Romney’s taxes. Romney, however, has yet to fire back. After a withering primary and the legal inability to spend the money he’s raised until the convention, Romney has been outspent and fighting with one hand tied behind his back.
That all changes in a few weeks.
In better news, this latest round of Gallup polls contradict the latest round of juiced media-generated polls…
The CBS/NYT model has Democrats a +9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a +3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms. Ohio’s sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D+8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms. Pennsylvania’s numbers (D+6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s D+3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.
…so it’s pretty safe to say that Obama is the one in trouble, not Romney.
These job approval numbers also tell us why Obama and his Media Palace Guards are working so hard to disqualify Romney. It’s the only way Obama can win. America obviously wants to fire this failed president, but won’t if the alternative isn’t acceptable — and the only way the media can turn Romney into something unacceptable is to toxify him — which is all the corrupt media’s been doing for weeks now.
Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC
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