Emerson Poll: Donald Trump Up Two Points in Pennsylvania

Former President Donald Trump has taken a two-point advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania, an Emerson College/RealClearPennsylvania (RCPA) poll released Thursday shows.

The poll found that Trump leads Harris 51 percent to 49 percent in the Keystone State among likely voters, including undecided leaners. Trump gained two points of support since September, when he and Harris both scored 49 percent, with undecided leaners included in the sample.

Before undecided voters were pressed to choose a candidate in the last survey, Trump still had the edge on Harris. Of the respondents, 49 percent said they would back him, 48 percent said they would back Harris, and three percent were undecided.

In September’s Emerson College/RCPA poll, the candidates were tied at 48 percent, with learners out of the mix. Two percent were undecided.

Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball noted a substantial difference in support between age demographics.

“There is a significant age divide among voters: voters under 50 favor Harris, 57% to 39%, while voters over 50 break for Trump, 57% to 41%,” he said.

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The survey also gauged the temperature of Pennsylvania’s tightly contested U.S. Senate race between Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) and Republican businessman Dave McCormick.

Of the respondents, 47 percent prefer Casey, while 46 percent support McCormick with just 12 days to the election. Another two percent say they will back someone else, and a critical six percent are undecided. McCormick is up one point from September’s Emerson College poll, while Casey’s support is unchanged.

The survey comes as Casey scrambles away from Harris and the Democrat party to cozy up to former President Donald Trump in his closing argument. This is in stark contrast to Harris’s strategy, where she likened Trump to Adolf Hitler on Wednesday while addressing reporters outside the vice president’s residency in Washington, DC.

Casey’s effort to align with Trump comes after twice voting to convict the former president on impeachment charges.

Emerson College/RCPA sampled 860 likely voters from October 21-22, and the credibility interval is ± 3.3 percentage points.