Republicans have taken the lead in two of the most consequential U.S. House races in the country, which will have large roles in deciding which party takes control of the 119th House of Representatives.
An internal poll for California Republican Scott Baugh, conducted by WPA Intelligence October 17-18, finds him leading Democrat Dave Min in California’s 47th Congressional District, a seat currently occupied by Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA).
Baugh has 43 percent support to Min’s 40 percent, with an advantage among independent voters, Hispanic voters, and white voters. Min has slid five points since a September WPA Intelligence poll, while Baugh has climbed one point, per the memo.
Independents break for Baugh over Min at 41 percent to 37 percent, while 45 percent of Hispanics prefer Baugh and 31 percent support Min. With white voters, Baugh has a 47 percent to 37 percent edge, according to the polling memo.
What is more, there is a fairly steep divide among male voters, while women are much more split. Baugh is winning 45 percent of men, putting him 7 points ahead of Min at 38 percent. Women narrowly prefer Min, 43 percent to 41 percent.
National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spokesman Ben Peterson said in a statement that the economy, crime, and border are driving a coalescence behind Baugh in Orange County.
“Orange County voters are rallying behind Scott Baugh to lower taxes and fix the economy, stop the violent crime wave and secure the border,” Peterson said.
“Extreme Sacramento Democrat politician Dave Min has made Orange County more dangerous and more expensive, and it’s clear voters are ready for change,” he added.
The poll sampled 401 likely voters in California’s 47th Congressional District, and the margin of error is ± 4.9 percentage points.
Fresh polling from Alaska, first reported by Politico, also shows that Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) trails Republican Nick Begich in the race for the state’s lone congressional district. The internal poll for Begich’s campaign, conducted by Cygnal polling, finds 49.1 percent of likely voters in the state would back him in the first round of the ranked-choice voting system, while 44.5 percent would back Peltola.
A candidate needs 50 percent of the vote to win the election, and since Alaska Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe garnered 4 percent and Democrat Eric Halfner drew 2.4 percent of the response in the poll, Halfner was removed from the second round of polling as he drew the least amount of support.
In the second poll with just Begich, Peltola, and Howe, Begich rises to 49.6 percent, and Peltola climbs to 45.5 percent, leading to the removal of Howe on the final ballot. With Howe out of the picture, Begich reached 52.1 percent, and Peltola hit a wall at 47.9 percent.
“Nick Begich’s momentum is undeniable. Alaskans are fed up with Mary Peltola enabling Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and extreme Democrats’ failed agenda,” Peterson said in another statement.
The poll sampled 400 respondents between October 14 and 16. The margin of error is ± 4.86 percentage points.
The Alaska at-large congressional race and the contest for California’s 47th Congressional District are two of Decision Desk and the Hill’s eighteen toss-up House races that will decide who controls the next House of Representatives. The model gives the GOP a 56 percent chance of unseating Peltola and a 40 percent chance of winning Porter’s seat as of Monday.
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