Poll: GOP’s Moreno Takes Lead over Democrat Sherrod Brown in High Stakes Ohio Senate Race

Republcian Bernie Moreno has jumped ahead of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, according to a poll.

The Morning Consult survey, published Thursday, finds Morneo at 47 percent of support among likely voter respondents, while Brown follows at 46 percent.

The poll sampled 1,243 likely voters from October 6-15, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight notes. FiveThirtyEight did not list Morning Consult’s margin of error.

Moreno is trending in a positive direction, while Brown appears to be stuck at a 46 percent ceiling. Moreno is up three points from the September 9-18 Morning Consult poll, which showed him at 44 percent and Brown at 46 percent.

Another Morning Consult poll, taken from August 30 to September 8, showed Brown with 46 percent to Moreno’s 43 percent.

This latest poll also shows former President Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by seven points in the Buckeye State. Of the respondents, 52 percent support Trump, and 45 percent back Harris.

The survey comes on the heels of a private polling memo from the National Republcian Senatrorial Committee (NRSC), the campaign arm for the Senate GOP, which found Moreno with a 2-point edge on Brown, 45 percent to 43 percent. That poll also showed Trump with an 11-point lead on Harris in Ohio.

“These results indicate Moreno has continued to pick up the GOP momentum he needs to secure victory in November,” wrote NRSC Executive Director Jason Thielman in the memo.

Ohio’s Senate race is one of the most closely-watched and consequential U.S. Senate races this cycle.

Outside of Montana and West Virginia, this is arguably the best pick-up opportunity for Republicans, considering Ohio has solidified itself as a red state. Republicans have throttled Democrats there in recent elections, including in the 2016 presidential race, the 2020 presidential race, and all statewide races in the 2022 midterms.

The closest margin in a 2022 statewide contest was the 6.2 percent margin by which Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) prevailed over former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) in the Senate race.

If Republicans protect their more vulnerable seats in Texas and Florida while flipping blue seats in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio red, that would give the GOP a 52-seat majority before considering other tight Senate races, like in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Maryland, and Nevada.