Republicans Lead Senate Races in Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin as Michigan, Pennsylvania on Knife’s Edge

Republican Senate candidates have the edge in three critical states where they can flip blue seats red, while several other races are either on a knife’s edge or show Republicans within striking distance, according to a National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) polling memorandum.

The memo, first published by Politico on Tuesday, shows Republicans ahead in Montana, Ohio, and Wisconsin against three Democrat incumbents. This is a major development considering Democrats currently hold a 51-49 seat majority in the Senate. If West Virginia’s senate race breaks for Republicans, as expected, and GOP incumbents successfully defend their seats while bringing home these three races, they will hold at least a 53-seat majority.

In Montana, Republican nominee Tim Sheehy is a comfortable eight points ahead of Sen. Jon Tester, 50 percent to 42 percent in the NRSC polling memo. Moreover, Sheehy’s favorability rating is +5 percentage points, while Tester’s is two points underwater.

In the red state of Ohio, Republican Bernie Moreno has a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) with the election exactly three weeks out, while former President Donald Trump has an 11-point advantage in the presidential race.

“These results indicate Moreno has continued to pick up the GOP momentum he needs to secure victory in November,” writes NRSC Executive Director Jason Thielman in the memo.

NRSC press secretary Mike Berg noted this is the first time the Senate GOP’s campaign arm has shown Moreno out front.

The memo shows that in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, Republican businessman Eric Hovde has a 48 percent to 47 percent edge on Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) in a head-to-head match-up. Hovde seems to be surging at a critical time, as this marks the first time he has been ahead in NRSC polling, per the memo. In a ballot that includes third-party candidates, they tie at 46 percent.

“Hovde has a clear opportunity to continue his growth and consolidate support while driving Baldwin’s negatives up and her position on the ballot down,” the memo contends.

The memo also indicates that the Michigan and Pennsylvania races are neck and neck.

In the Wolverine State, former House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-MI) is tied with Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) at 48 percent apiece in a head-to-head race, though Slotkin takes a 49 percent to 48 percent edge on the full ballot. The Senate Leadership Fund notably announced Tuesday morning it is committing $10.5 million to bolster Rogers in the home stretch of the race after a solid second debate performance Monday night.

In Pennsylvania, Republican businessman Dave McCormick is one point back of Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA). McCormick garners 43 percent to Casey’s 44 percent. Another four percent prefer third-party options.

If Republicans sweep all five of these races in Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, they would have control of at least 55 Senate seats, assuming they win West Virginia and defend everything else–mainly Florida and Texas.

Moreover, GOP Senate nominees in the southwest swing states of Arizona and Nevada are within striking distance of their Democrat opponents, according to the memo. Arizona Republcian Kari Lake trails Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) 45 percent to 49 percent, while Ret. Army Captain Sam Brown (R) is five points back of Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), 43 percent to 48 percent.