Gallup: 80% of Key Measures Favor Republicans in 2024 Election

Eight out of ten key measures in the 2024 presidential election cycle favor Republicans, Gallup polling found Monday.

The finding suggests Republicans have a significant chance of holding the House and retaking the Senate, along with the White House.

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Gallup measured and weighed 10 aspects of the election environment with eight of ten favoring Republicans. Two of the ten measurements that Gallup weighted as “strong” both leaned toward Republicans.
None favored or leaned toward Democrats, and two favored neither party. Gallup weighed the measurements that favored neither party as only “weak” and “moderate.”

1. Party identification and leaning (Republicans, Strong)
2. Party better able to handle most important problem (Republicans, Strong)
3. U.S. satisfaction (Republicans, Moderate)
4. Economic confidence (Republicans, Moderate)
5. Party better able to keep America prosperous (Republicans, Moderate)
6. Presidential job approval (Neither, Moderate)
7. Party favorable ratings (Republicans, Moderate)
8. Party better able to keep America safe from international threats (Republicans, Weak)
9. Preference for government activity (Republicans, Weak)
10. Congressional job approval (Neither, Weak)

Decision Desk HQ predicts Republicans have a 54 percent chance of keeping control of the House chamber, which is charged with initiating revenue bills, impeaching judges and presidents, and electing a president absent an outright Electoral College victory. In the Senate, Republicans have a 70 percent chance of retaking control, according to the forecast. The Senate is important because it has the exclusive power to confirm presidential appointments, approve or reject treaties, and try cases of impeachment.

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One reason Republicans have a greater chance of flipping the Senate than keeping the House is due to the 2024 electoral map. Democrats have more swing-state seats up for reelection than Republicans. More vulnerable Democrat seats mean the party must spend more resources defending seats rather than attacking seats held by Republican senators up for reelection.

A second reason Republicans have a lower chance of keeping the House is due to a reduced amount of total battleground districts up for grabs, placing greater weight on fewer races. Population shifts among partisans and subsequent redistricting within those states spawned the overall reduced number of swing districts, political experts believe.

Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former RNC War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.