Former President Donald Trump has the edge on Vice President Kamala Harris in the swing states of Arizona and Georgia, according to an NPR/Marist poll published Thursday.
The poll, which includes leaners, finds that 50 percent of the 1,246 likely voters back Trump, while 49 percent prefer Harris. One percent support another candidate. Trump’s lead falls within the ± 3.8 percent margin of error among likely voters in the Grand Canyon State.
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The pair are neck and neck in Maricopa County, the fourth-largest county in the country, which includes Phoenix and surrounding cities Mesa, Tempe, Scottsdale, and Chandler. Harris sits at 51 percent, and Trump garners 49 percent.
Trump has a 23-point edge with white working-class voters. White voters who did not graduate college break for Trump at a 61 percent to 38 percent ratio. However, Harris leads with college-educated white voters by a slightly wider margin of 63 percent to Trump’s 35 percent.
The survey shows that he has an identical 50 percent to 49 percent edge on Harris among likely voters and leaners in Georgia. One percent would back a third-party candidate, and one percent are undecided. Harris leads with independents 51 percent to 46 percent, but Trump is throttling Harris with white working-class voters by a 50-point margin: 75 percent to 25 percent.
While Harris has the edge with college-educated whites in Arizona, Trump leads 50 percent to 49 percent with this group in Georgia.
The poll sampled 1,220 likely voters in the Peach State, and the margin of error is ± 3.9 percentage points.
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NPR and Marist also gauged the state of the race in North Carolina, finding the candidates are tied at 49 percent among 1,348 likely voters. They are locked at 48 percent with independent voters, while white working-class voters again prefer Trump by a substantial margin. Of white voters who did not receive a college education, he leads Harris from 71 percent to 28 percent.
Most white voters with a college degree, 59 percent, prefer Harris, while 40 percent support Trump.
The margin of error in North Carolina is ±3.7 percent, and samples in all three states were collected from September 19-24.
These three swing states will be critical in determining the outcome of the presidential election. Arizona and Georgia went to the winners of the electoral college in each of the past two elections, Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020.
Theoretically, if Trump wins every red state he is expected to, and takes Georgia and Arizona, he would be at 246 electoral votes. That is before considering swing states North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that could help him to 270 electoral votes.