The probability former President Donald Trump will defeat Vice President Kamala Harris soared to a 10-point spread, a J.L. Partners election model revealed Thursday.
The forecast indicates Harris’s so-called honeymoon since joining the 2024 White House race in July appears over as the model found Trump’s probability increased four points since Monday and nine points since the debate.
The model simulated the course of the election around 8,000 times and created a probability of each candidate winning a state and then the probability the candidates win the Electoral College.
The Daily Mail’s Rob Crilly reported on the finding:
But state-by-state numbers all show the Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan tilting towards Trump, giving him the overall advantage when it comes to winning the White House.
It gives him a 55.2 percent chance of victory. Harris is on 44.6 percent, with a very small chance of a tie.
The best way to understand what it all means is to imagine running the model multiple times with all the different permutations and combinations for all the different states. When all of those are run, Trump wins on average 55.2 percent of the time.
Data analyst at J.L. Partners, Callum Hunter, believes Trump could open an even wider lead in the coming weeks.
“Things are continuing to move against Harris,” Hunter said. “While September saw her gain ground as a result of the debate and changes in ballot access, things have started to settle back to where they were at the start of September.”
“If current trends continue (although these have only been in place for a week or so) then we may see Trump take a more concrete lead in the race over the coming few weeks,” he added. “September seems to have been Harris’ high point and trends suggest that this high has come to an end.”
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Ron Pragides via Storyful, @GDawg8 via StoryfulPolling and election forecasts are often wrong, however, leading some Republicans to warn about too much “happy talk.” Trump still must overcome his political opponents: The administrative state, the media, Obama/Clinton world, and a Democrat candidate who appears to say or do whatever it takes to win.
“Republicans need every patriot to volunteer to get out the vote for President Trump and volunteer to ensure election integrity,” GOP strategist Alex deGrasse told Breitbart News last week. “We need the grassroots to sign up to get trained to work as poll watchers to help secure President Trump’s victory. We cannot rest until we successfully protect every legal vote.”
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former RNC War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.
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