Gallup: Republicans, for First Time, Lead in Party ID in Q3 of Presidential Year

More American adults identify as Republican in the third quarter of a presidential year for the first time in recorded history, Gallup revealed Tuesday.

The finding is significant because party identification is a strong indicator of party preferences leading into November’s presidential, House, and Senate elections.

Forty-eight percent American adults identify as Republican or leading Republican, while only 45 percent identify as Democrat or leading Democrat, Gallup reported:

Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party. At the aggregate level, there are typically more Democrats and Democratic leaners than Republicans and Republican leaners in the U.S. adult population. Democrats have won presidential elections in years in which they had larger-than-normal advantages in party affiliation, including 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012 and 2020.

In years when the advantage was narrower — 2004 and 2016, for example — Republicans won in the electoral college if not also the popular vote.

Republicans previously have not had an outright advantage in party affiliation during the third quarter of a presidential election year, and they have rarely outnumbered Democrats in election and nonelection years over the past three decades.

Gallup based its figures on average polling between July and September across presidential years.

Decision Desk HQ predicts Republicans have a 57 percent chance of keeping control of the House chamber, which is charged with initiating revenue bills, impeaching judges and presidents, and electing a president absent an outright Electoral College victory. In the Senate, Republicans have a 71 percent chance of retaking control, according to the forecast. The Senate is important because it has the exclusive power to confirm presidential appointments, approve or reject treaties, and try cases of impeachment.

One reason Republicans have a greater chance of flipping the Senate than keeping the House is due to the 2024 electoral map. Democrats have more swing-state seats up for reelection than Republicans.

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Ron Pragides via Storyful, @GDawg8 via Storyful

More vulnerable Democrat seats mean the party must spend more resources defending seats rather than attacking seats held by Republican senators up for reelection.

A second reason Republicans have a lower chance of keeping the House is due to a reduced amount of total battleground districts up for grabs, placing greater weight on fewer races. Population shifts among partisans and subsequent redistricting within those states spawned the overall reduced number of swing districts, political experts believe.

Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former RNC War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.