Poll: Virtual Tie in Key Swing State of Michigan

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are virtually tied in the key swing state of Michigan, a Suffolk/USA Today survey reveals.

The Michigan poll, taken September 16-19, 2024, among 500 likely voters, asked respondents who they would choose in a matchup between Trump and Harris.

Forty-eight percent said they would support Harris, while 45 percent said they would support Trump — a three-point gap. However, that gap is well within the overall survey’s ± 4.4 percent margin of error, making it a virtual tie.

According to the survey, another four percent remain undecided.

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the race could very well come down to third-party voters.

“If the Kamala Harris margin shrinks to a 1-point lead, the entire state hinges on the fringes of the Michigan ballot,” he said.

“The behavior of third-party voters — people who are mocked for wasting their votes — could make the difference if they rotate to either Harris or Trump,” he added.

The impact of third-party voters remains to be seen. This reality comes as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump, is still technically on the ballot despite efforts to get his name off in the state. He is currently polling at one percent.

According to USA Today:

The Michigan Court of Appeals ordered Kennedy’s name removed from the state’s ballot, but the Michigan Supreme Court, on which Democratic nominees hold a 4-3 edge, reversed that ruling in a split decision. Kennedy has appealed to the U.S. 6th Circuit Court of Appeals.

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This survey follows an InsiderAdvantage survey taken after the presidential debate between Harris and Trump, which found 49 percent of likely Michigan voters backing Trump and 48 percent backing Harris — again indicating a tight race in the battleground state.

As Breitbart News reported:

This marks a net-three point swing away from Harris and toward Trump since an August Insider Advantage/Trafalgar Group poll. That survey of 800 likely Michigan voters from August 6-8, 2024, found Harris leading 49 percent to 47 percent.

Independents prefer Trump over Harris by five points, noted Insider Advantage pollster Matt Towery in a release.

The current RealClearPolling average has Harris up by an average of 1.8 percent in the Wolverine State.