The latest polling from the far-left New York Times shows former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris all tied up nationally — 47 to 47 percent.
The poll of 2,437 likely voters was taken entirely after the September 10 presidential debate — September 11-16.
Harris and Trump are also tied up at 46 percent with third-party candidates added to the ballot.
In the previous New York Times/Siena poll, this one taken entirely before the debate, Trump led by one point, 48 to 47 percent. With third-party candidates on the ballot, he led by two points, 47 to 45 percent.
As of Thursday, the national polling according to the RealClearPolitics average poll of national polls shows Harris up by 2.1 points. Before the debate, she was only up by 1.1 points.
So, what does this tell us?
Well, we are nine days out of the debate, and, despite Trump’s dismal performance, not much has changed. It looks like he might have lost a point or two nationally, but it is obvious Harris has not closed the deal with voters. She handled herself well in that debate, but her galling lack of policy specifics, which continues to this day, continues to work against her. Voters do not feel as though they know her or what her plans are.
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This also tells us that Trump is Trump. His polling basement nationally is 46 percent. His ceiling is 48 percent. Even a blown debate performance will not change that.
Nevertheless, this race will be decided in a handful of states, and that is where the race is a true tie.
Using the RealClearPolitics average poll of state polls, Trump leads narrowly in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. Harris leads narrowly in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada. No one had a lead of more than two points in any of those states. In three states, the lead is less than a point.
The good news for Trump is that he is a superb closer, and, if the polls are off by even a point or two (and they were off by a lot more in 2016 and 2020), he is going to have a good night.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.