After leading in poll after poll for some five weeks, sitting Vice President Kamala Harris has seen her lead against former President Donald Trump evaporate into a tie.
Starting on August 6, CacklyMcNeverBorderCzar enjoyed a consistent lead in the Economist/YouGov national poll of registered voters. That lead is now gone.
On August 6, Kamala led Trump 45 to 43 percent (+2).
August 13: Kamala 46/Trump 44 (+2).
August 20: Kamala 46/Trump 43 (+3).
August 27: Kamala 47/Trump 45 (+2).
September 3: Kamala 47/Trump 45 (+2).
In the latest Economist/YouGov poll, taken September 8-10, 2024, among 1,464 registered voters, the race is all tied up at 45 percent. This is very much in line with other recent national polls that show the vice president’s lead has faded into a tie or a slight Trump advantage.
Obviously, this poll does not include any reaction to Tuesday night’s debate between Trump and Harris. Based on various focus groups the media have gathered, while most people say Kamala won the debate (and she did), her victory did not move the undecideds who will almost certainly choose who our next president is. Trump was Trump. Although he had some good moments, for much of the debate, he came off as peevish and defensive. And while Kamala managed to look poised and practiced and did an admirable job burrowing under Trump’s skin, according to these undecided focus groups, her galling lack of policy specifics still troubles them.
A focus group of ten undecided voters that Reuters gathered ended with six leaning toward Trump and only three leaning toward Kamala.
The conclusion to take from this is that while Kamala won the debate based on points and style, Trump won based on concrete policies and a voting public desperate for change after four years of failure. It’s just a fact that people remember the Trump years much more fondly than the Biden-Harris years, and who can blame them?
While the debate was disappointing for most Trump supporters, by Monday, no one will be talking about it, and we will likely be right back in a political cycle where Kamala refuses to do one-on-one interviews or voter town halls — where she refuses to answer questions, participate in media appearances, or lay out specific policy proposals.
Tuesday’s debate was all about Kamala looking to make 2024 a referendum on Trump. If Kamala had a policy roadmap for the future, she might have accomplished that … and it is the only way she can win.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.