Poll: Trump-Backed Republican Bernie Moreno Surges in Ohio’s Senate Race

Trump-backed Republican Bernie Moreno is rapidly closing in on longtime establishment Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, according to an Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll.

The poll, published Friday, showed Brown just two points ahead of Moreno at 46 percent to 44 percent. Another ten percent were undecided.

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The poll sampled 945 likely voters from September 3-5, with a credibility interval of ± 3.1 percentage points, making the race a statistical tie.

In a positive for Moreno, a plurality of undecided voters (37.7 percent) are Republicans, while only 16.6 percent of undecided voters are Democrats.

In other words, there is far more outstanding Republican support that Moreno has the opportunity to gain than outstanding Democrats Brown can consolidate behind him.

Emerson College noted an interesting trend among union-tied voters, where most union members vote for Brown but those with a family member in a union prefer Moreno.

“Voters in unions break for Brown, 53% to 36%. Those who are not in unions but a member of their family is favor Moreno, 48% to 37%, while non-union members are split, 45% supporting both candidates,” the release noted.

The poll indicated a surge for Moreno when compared to other polls conducted in August and July.

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An August Rasmussen Reports poll of 1267 likely voters found Moreno at 42 percent and Brown at 47 percent. The poll was conducted on August 13-17, and the margin of error (MOE) was not listed.

The movement from them to now marks a three-point swing toward Moreno and away from Brown.

Similarly, a Fabrizio/Impact Research poll conducted from July 23-28 for AARP showed a 46 percent to 42 percent lead for Brown. The MOE was ± four percent.

The survey comes as Republicans in other critical U.S. Senate races are showing strong and competitive positions against Democrat senators.

A Fabrizio Ward/ David Binder Research poll for AARP, taken August 25-29, showed Trump-backed Montana Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy with an eight-point lead over Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). Fabrizio Ward and David Binder Research sampled 600 likely voters from August 25-29. The MOE was ± four percentage points.

In Pennsylvania, Republican Dave McCormick is in a dead heat with Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) at 46 percent apiece, a CNN/SSRS poll published Wednesday found. The respondents included 777 likely voter respondents, and the MOE was ±4.7 percentage points.