Political ‘Nostradamus’ Claims His Election Model Forecasts a Kamala Harris Win 

“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” historian Allan Lichtman (“Nostradamus”) predicted on Thursday based on three faulty assumptions.

The forecast, published in a New York Times video, is noteworthy because Lichtman’s model allegedly predicted the last two presidential elections correctly.

Lichtman claims to have accurately predicted presidential elections since 1984, though critics say many “keys” to his model are open to interpretation so they can conform to whatever the election outcome is. More on Lichtman’s dubious track record is here.

Lichtman, a 77-year-old American University history professor and Quiz Show Champion known as “Nostradamus” due to his imperfect track record of forecasting presidential race outcomes for more than 40 years, released his 2024 forecast using his prediction model, “The Keys to the White House.”

The predictive “keys” are 13 big-picture true or false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party, and only two keys have anything to do with the candidates. A full outline of the specific keys is here.

Lichtman arrived at his 2024 prediction by making three untrue assumptions. First, he argued the Biden-Harris administration’s economy is a success, even though costs have risen about 20 percent across the board on average.

Second, he argued the Biden-Harris administration’s foreign policy is a success, even though Russia invaded Ukraine, Hamas holds hostages in Gaza, and the U.S. conducted a deadly Afghan withdrawal.

Third, Lichtman claims there is no sustained social unrest during the term, even though pro-Palestinian protesters remain active on college campuses.

According to Social Education, Lichtman’s 13 keys are:

• KEY 1 (Party mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
• KEY 2 (No primary contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
• KEY 3 (Incumbent seeking reelection): The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
• KEY 4 (No third party): There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
• KEY 5 (Strong short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
• KEY 6 (Strong long-term economy): Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
• KEY 7 (Major policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
• KEY 8 (No social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
• KEY 9 (No scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
• KEY 10 (No foreign or military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
• KEY 11 (Major foreign or military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
• KEY 12 (Charismatic incumbent): The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
• KEY 13 (Uncharismatic challenger): The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former RNC War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.