Vice President Kamala Harris remains unable to claw back former President Donald Trump’s inroads among black, Latino, and young voters, a Wall Street Journal analysis found Tuesday.
The analysis is significant because the Democrat Party hoped President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside for Harris would restore key voting blocs in favor of its nominee.
Black, Latino, and young voters are historically key voting blocs for Democrats and key segments of the populations that often decide presidential elections in swing states. Biden’s Electoral College victory rested on just 44,000 votes across three states.
Harris is far behind Biden’s 2020 surveys, as Trump’s gains largely remain intact, the Journal analysis showed based on percentage points:
- Young voters (under 30): Harris underperforming 2020 Biden by 12
- Black voters: Harris underperforming 2020 Biden by 10
- Latino voters: Harris underperforming 2020 Biden by 6
- Male voters: Harris underperforming 2020 Biden by 4
- Female voters: Harris underperforming 2020 Biden by 2
The Journal attributed Trump’s staying power to support among men:
One reason Harris hasn’t closed the gap among these voter groups is that many men find Trump more appealing now than four years ago. He is winning 20% of [b]lack men in the Journal’s two most recent polls, far higher than his 12% share in 2020. And Trump is essentially tied with Harris among Latino men, drawing 47% support compared with Harris’s 48%. Analysts have suggested a mix of reasons for the shift, among them the relative importance men and women place on abortion rights, as well as differing views on the economy and on Trump’s assertive persona.
Among voters of all races, Harris lags behind Biden’s 2020 national support a bit more among men than among women.
If Harris can’t match her party’s 2020 showing among these groups, where might she make up the votes? Many analysts say she can look to white voters, especially among women responding to her promises to work to restore access to abortion. If they are right, the first [b]lack female president could have a winning coalition that relies more on white voters, and less on those from minority groups, than did the white man elected just before her.
“That’s where the trends are heading,’’ Republican pollster Greg Strimple told the Journal. “That’s what I think is happening.”
The Journal based its analysis on Associated Press VoteCast, which polled (2024 voter preferences) 2,500 registered voters from July 23-25 and August 24-28. The survey’s margin of error is ± two percentage points.
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former RNC War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.
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