CNN Polls: Republican Senate Candidates Pull Even with Top of Ticket

Trump-backed Republican Senate candidates in key battleground states are closing in on their Democrat opponents, with most margins reflecting those of the presidential race in CNN/SSRS polls of likely voters.

The trend among likely voters suggests that the switch from President Joe Biden to Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democrat presidential nominee will not be as beneficial to down-ballot Senate candidates as Democrats had hoped, as Harris’s honeymoon phase has ended with the election two months away.

For instance, in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, Republican businessman Dave McCormick is tied with Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) at 46 percent. Another four percent would vote for someone else, while three percent would vote for “neither.” Similarly, the poll shows a tie at 47 percent between former President Donald Trump and Harris.

In former Rep. Mike Rogers’ (R-MI) Senate race against Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), he is running just one point behind Trump in his race against Harris. Rogers draws 41 percent of the response to Slotkin’s 47 percent, while seven percent prefer another candidate, and four percent prefer “neither.” Harris has a five-point edge on Trump in Michigan in this poll, leading 48 percent to 43 percent.

Notably, former independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will remain on the ballot in Michigan. Four percent backed him in this poll, taken both the day of and days after his Trump endorsement. However, many of those voters could head the forty-fifth president’s way in time.

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Again, in Wisconsin, the presidential and senatorial race margins are identical. Harris has a 50 percent to 44 percent lead over Trump, and Republican Senate nominee Eric Hovde takes 45 percent to Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D-WI) 51 percent.

Trump leads Harris by five points in Arizona, and his momentum can be seen translating to the Senate race between Kari Lake and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), which is a statistical tie as they battle for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) seat. Lake garners 44 percent of support, while Gallego earns 47 percent, putting his three-point edge within the ± 4.7 percent margin of error.

The only race where the trend breaks is Nevada. Trump is in a statistical tie with Harris at 47 percent and 48 percent, respectively, whereas Republican Sam Brown faces a ten-point deficit to Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) in the Senate race.

Brown registers at 40 percent, while 50 percent back Rosen. Another seven percent would vote for someone else, and two percent said “neither.”

In Arizona, the survey sampled 676 likely voters. In Michigan and Nevada, 694 and 613 likely voters were polled, with a margin of error of ± 4.7 percentage points. And finally, 967 likely Wisconsin voters were included in the poll, resulting in a ± 4.4 percent margin of error.