Senate races in key battleground states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan–where Republicans look to flip Democrat-held seats red–are tightening, polling shows.
A Fabrizio Ward poll of the three states published by the Pinpoint Policy Institute found very close races in Pennsylvania and Michigan, with Republican challenger Eric Hovde within earshot of Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) in Wisconsin:
A separate Emerson College poll of five Rust Belt and Sun Belt states conducted for Nexstar Media showed a neck-and-neck race in Wisconsin and a competitive contest in the Keystone State with Republicans in striking distance elsewhere.
The results from the Fabrizio Ward poll, conducted August 19-21 during the Democratic National Convention (DNC), are as follows:
Michigan
- Rep. Elissa Slotkin (R): 43 percent
- Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R): 43 percent
- Undecided: 14 percent
Pennsylvania:
- Sen. Bob Casey (D): 46 percent
- Businessman Dave McCormick (R): 43 percent
- Undecided: 11 percent
Wisconsin:
- Baldwin (D): 48 percent
- Hovde (R): 43 percent
- Undecided: 9 percent
The poll sampled 400 likely voters in each state, and the margins of error are ± 4.9.
The tie between Rogers and Slotkin in this poll indicates momentum for Rogers, as the RealClearPolling (RCP) polling average has him 4.8 percentage points behind Slotkin. McCormick is also performing better than the 6.5 percent deficit he has to Casey in the RCP average.
The Emerson College/Nexstar poll, taken from August 25-28, had varying sample sizes and credibility intervals ranging from ± 2.8 percent to ± 3.6 percentage points. The results are as follows:
Arizona – 720 likely voters:
- Rep. Ruben Gallego (D): 49 percent
- Former News anchor Kari Lake (R): 42 percent
- Undecided: 9 percent
Michigan – 800 likely voters:
- Slotkin (D): 47 percent
- Rogers (R): 41 percent
- Undecided: 12 percent
Nevada–1,168 likely voters
- Sen. Jacky Rosen (D): 50 percent
- Ret. Army Capt. Sam Brown (R): 40 percent
- None of these: 4 percent
- Undecided: 6 percent
Pennsylvania–900 likely voters:
- Casey (D): 48 percent
- McCormick: 44 percent
- Undecided: 8 percent
Wisconsin–850 likely voters:
- Baldwin (D): 49 percent
- Hovde (R): 48 percent
- Undecided: 3 percent
Baldwin’s one-point advantage in the Emerson poll is a far cry from her 6.4 percentage point lead in the RCP average:
Republicans have a prime opportunity to take a multi-seat Senate majority this year. The GOP has realistic pickup opportunities in roughly ten or so battleground states, while Democrats largely are on defense.
The best pickup opportunities for the left are challenging feats, considering they are in red Texas and Florida, where strong incumbent Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL) occupy the seats up for election.
Democrats and the independents who caucus with them currently hold a one-seat majority in the Senate, which is already greatly imperiled as Republicans are in a strong position to pick up a seat in red West Virginia behind GOP Senate candidate Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV), and they appear to be in the driver’s seat in red Montana.
In the Treasure State, polls show retired Navy SEAL and businessman Tim Sheehy (R) has the advantage over longtime Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). Sheehy holds a five-point lead in the RCP average. Moreover, the GOP has another prime pickup opportunity in red Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is facing Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.
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