New Mexico Poll: Donald Trump and GOP Senate Candidate in Virtual General Election Ties Before Debate

Former President Donald Trump and Republican Senate candidate Nella Domenici are virtually tied with their Democrat opponents in New Mexico, according to an internal poll for Domenici’s campaign taken before President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance.

The poll, first reported Monday by National Journal Hotline National Correspondent Zac Weisz, finds Trump and Biden are neck and neck in a hypothetical head-to-head presidential race. Trump earns 47 percent of the likely voters’ support to Biden’s 49 percent.

In the presidential race, Joe Biden led Donald Trump in a theoretical head-to-head election in New Mexico, 49%-47%.

The president led his predecessor by just one point in a six-way race.

— Zac Weisz (@zac_weisz) July 1, 2024

In a deeper six-way race, Biden’s lead over Trump dwindles to one percent, according to Weisz. Both the margins in the two-way race and in the larger field fall within the ± four percentage point margin of error.

In the Senate race, Domenici has 42.2 percent, while Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM) has 45.5 percent. Another 9.7 percent are undecided. Heinrich’s 3.3-point lead falls within the poll’s margin of error.

The poll, commissioned by the Domenici campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), was conducted by 1892 and sampled 600 likely voters between June 19-24, Breitbart News has learned.

Notably, the survey was conducted ahead of Biden’s debate performance on Thursday night, which sent shockwaves throughout the Democrat party and sparked a debate on the left about potentially replacing the 81-year-old at the top of the Democrat ticket.

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The Biden family held a two-day huddle at Camp David over the weekend, and sources told the New York Times that the whole “family is united” that Biden will remain in the race and that no discussions centered around dropping out.

This aligns with what former adviser to first lady Jill Biden Michael LaRosa told Breitbart News on Saturday. LaRosa emphasized that a formal behind-the-scenes discussion with the president about potentially stepping aside would likely have to come from Democratic leadership in Congress.

He said that the first lady, in particular, “would never be comfortable with a weighty decision like saying, ‘Joe, you have to, you know, step aside.” He insisted this would “absolutely not” happen.

“Something like that, and I think it’s important for your audience to know, like, in both parties, something like that would probably have to come from, like, the leadership in Congress,” he said, referring to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

And if down-ballot Democrats begin to suffer as a result, specifically Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) in Pennsylvania, then this could trigger a reaction from Schumer, according to LaRosa.

Immediately after the debate, Republican Senate candidates in competitive races around the country began highlighting ties between their opponents and the president. Domenici’s campaign joined in on the trend Sunday in a statement to the Santa Fe New Mexican.

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Campaign manager Noah Jennings told the outlet:

President Joe Biden’s performance last night was bad, but the job he and Martin Heinrich have done over the last few years is much worse; a high cost of living, rampant crime, and open borders are the Biden-Heinrich legacy. That’s why you see Democrats in a panic and New Mexico in play.

Trump and Domenici’s apparent strength in New Mexico, where Democrats have won seven of the last eight presidential elections, comes as Trump is following through on his plan to expand the universe of battleground states to include traditionally Democrat states.

Trump first shared his vision with Breitbart News editor-in-chief Alex Marlow and Washington bureau chief Matthew Boyle in December.

“One of the other things I’m going to do — and I may be foolish in doing it — is I’m going to make a heavy play for New York, heavy play for New Jersey, heavy play for Virginia, heavy play for New Mexico, and a heavy play for a state that hasn’t been won in years, Minnesota,” Trump said at his Mar-a-Lago resort.