Election Model: Trump Will Win Popular Vote by Wide Margin

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump enters at a campaign event
AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps
Wendell Husebø

Former President Trump leads President Joe Biden by six points in the probability of winning the popular vote in November, Nate Silver’s election model forecasted June 30 after the first presidential debate.

The last Republican to win the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004 with 50.73 percent.

Silver’s election model’s forecast is the first time it predicted Trump would defeat Biden with the popular vote. Trump was previously behind by two points one day before the debate, the forecast predicted.

The probability that Trump will win the electoral college, the process by which the election is decided, is 68.4 percent. President Joe Biden’s chances of reelection are 31 percent.

Silver, who exited FiveThirtyEight in 2023, released the model on June 30, three days after the debate.

Before the debate, Silver gave Trump a 65.7 percent chance to win the White House, three points less than the latest prediction.

Silver explained the method to his forecast:

The model is the direct descendant of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast2 and the methodology is largely the same, other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020. (Other changes are documented here.3) If you’ve received this by email, we strongly recommend that you instead use the web version for interactive charts.

Polling averages are free for all readers, while forecasts, probabilities, and additional detail on model inputs require a paid subscription. Our latest narrative overview of the race — “The presidential election isn’t a toss-up” — can be found here.

The Silver Bulletin polling averages are a little fancy. They adjust for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, the presence or absence of RFK Jr., and house effects. They weight more reliable polls more heavily. And they use national polls to make inferences about state polls and vice versa. It requires a few extra CPU cycles — but the reward is a more stable average that doesn’t get psyched out by outliers.

Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.

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