Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in Nevada, according to an American Impact Research/Fabrizio Lee/AARP poll.
The overall survey shows Trump leading Biden in what has been a blue state in presidential elections since 2008. Trump leads Biden in the state with a three-point advantage, garnering 48 percent support to Biden’s 45 percent support.
When third-party candidates are added to the mix, including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s lead over Biden jumps another four points, giving him a seven-point advantage over the incumbent.
According to the Nevada Independent:
Pollsters said that identifying persuadable voters — such as the nearly quarter of voters over 50 who indicated they will split their ticket — and appealing to their issues will be key for the campaigns.
“We know they’re going to vote,” Democratic pollster Jeffrey Liszt said of older swing voters. “And there are enough of them to decide these races.”
In the presidential race, women preferred Biden by 6 percentage points in a head-to-head contest, while Trump won men by 14 percentage points. The poll finds Biden winning voters under 34 and close to capturing voters over 65, but getting blown out among middle-aged voters.
Further, the survey shows that Biden has dismal approval ratings, as 58 percent disapprove of him compared to 37 percent who approve, putting him 21 points underwater.
The survey was taken June 12-18, 2024, among 600 likely voters over 18. It has a margin of error of ± four percent.
The results are notable, given that Nevada has gone for a Democrat presidential candidate every year since 2008. Trump lost Nevada by 2.4 percent in both 2016 and 2020.
The results came ahead of the first presidential debate of 2024 between Trump and Biden, which sparked widespread panic among Democrats following Biden’s lackluster debate performance full of repeated phrases, freezes, and debunked talking points.
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