Poll: Republican Tim Sheehy in Dead Heat with Democrat Jon Tester in Montana Senate Race

Tim Sheehy and Jon Tester
Louise Johns/Bloomberg, Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
Nick Gilbertson

The Montana Senate race between Trump-backed Republican Tim Sheehy and Sen. John Tester (D-MT) is a dead heat, according to what is reportedly a Republican internal poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies.

The poll, which first appeared to surface through the polling aggregation X account @IAPolls2022, finds Sheehy and Tester both with 46 percent support in a four-way race in the red state.

It is unclear for whom Public Opinion Strategies conducted the poll, though @IAPolls2022 writes it was “R Internal.” The polling outfit did not immediately respond to Breitbart News’s comment request asking who commissioned the poll.

Looking deeper, Sheehy’s support is comprised of 36 percent of respondents who report they will “definitely” back him, eight percent who will “probably” vote for him, and two percent who “lean” toward him.

Similarly, 39 percent report they will “definitely” support Tester, and seven percent “probably” will.

The Green Party’s Michael Downey and the Libertarian Party’s Sid Daoud each register at two percent, with another three percent undecided.

Tester, one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection in the 2024 cycle, is the last Democrat to win a statewide election in Montana, which came six years ago against Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT). Tester won that Senate race by 3.5 points that year, at 50.3 percent to 46.8 percent.

Turning to a hypothetical two-way presidential race, former President Donald Trump has a 20-point lead over President Joe Biden at 57 percent and 37 percent, respectively, according to the poll. Half of Montanans say they will “definitely” vote for Trump, while five percent “probably will” and two percent “lean” his way.

In comparison, just 32 percent would “definitely” back Biden if the election were today, while four percent “probably” would, and one percent “lean” toward him.

Trump’s lead outpaces the margin that was between him and Biden in 2020 when he scored 56.9 percent to Biden’s 40.5 percent. However, it is right on par with the 2016 margin between Trump, who garnered 55.6 percent of the vote, and Clinton, whom 35.4 percent of Montanans backed.

The poll sampled 500 likely voters from June 11-13, 2024, with a margin of error of ± 4.38 percent.

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