Emerson College Poll: Donald Trump Leads in 6 Swing States Post-Conviction, Ties Joe Biden in One

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JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images
Wendell Husebø

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in six swing states, Emerson College polling found, while Biden managed to tie Trump in Minnesota, a state that has voted for the Democrat nominee since 1976.

The poll represents one of the first published surveys after a Manhattan jury convicted Trump on 34 counts in his business records trial in May.

Compared to Emerson polling from April, the survey also shows that Trump’s lead in swing state polling remains mostly unchanged post-conviction.

Seven states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — will decide the president, longtime Democrat adviser Doug Sosnik wrote in the New York Times. If Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden’s chances of obtaining 270 electoral votes become narrower.

Emerson polling, in June, found:

  1. Arizona: 47% Trump (+4), 43% Biden
  2. Georgia: 45% Trump (+4), 41% Biden
  3. Michigan: 46% Trump (+1), 45% Biden
  4. Minnesota: 45% Trump (-), 45% Biden
  5. Nevada: 46% Trump (+2), 43% Biden
  6. Pennsylvania: 47% Trump (+2), 45% Biden
  7. Wisconsin: 47% Trump (+3), 44% Biden

The poll sampled 1,000 registered voters from June 12-18, 2024, with a ± 3 percent margin of error.

Trump is doing well with several demographics that backed Biden in 2020. Biden’s support among women, for example, is the lowest for any Democrat since 2004, a Times analysis found Thursday, while Trump notched an eight-point lead over his opponent among the same demographic.

Trump’s growing strength among women is mirrored by his increased support among black and Hispanic voters, two more historically loyal demographics for Democrats. Democrat inroads among those groups of voters deteriorated to the lowest point in 60 years, polling from Gallup and Siena College revealed. In turn, Hispanic and black men could vote for Trump in proportions not seen in American politics since the 1950s.

Thirty percent of black men and 11 percent of black women intend to vote for Trump in 2024, Wall Street Journal polling found. Only 12 percent of black men voted for Trump in 2020, voting data shows. There is no compatible 2020 polling for black men. In 2020, six percent of black women said they would vote for Trump, Associated Press polling found, five points fewer than the Journal’s 2024 polling.

Among Hispanics, Trump leads Biden by five points (39-34 percent), up 33 points (32 percent-65 percent) since 2020, a USA Today/Suffolk University poll showed.

Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.

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