Poll: Donald Trump Opens Up 8-Point Lead in Arizona

Former President Donald Trump has opened up an eight-point lead on President Joe Biden in a hypothetical five-way presidential race in Arizona, according to an AARP/ Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research poll.

The survey finds that Trump garners 45 percent support among likely Arizona voters, putting him comfortably in the lead. Biden is in second place with 37 percent of the response, followed by independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 11 percent.

From there, the Green Party’s Jill Stein registers at three percent, while Libertarian Chase Oliver draws no support. Another four percent of the 600 likely voter respondents are undecided.

The poll also zoned in on a sample of 800 likely voters 50 and over, finding Trump has a 52 percent to 43 percent lead over Biden in the deeper field.

The poll was conducted before and after Trump was convicted in the Manhattan business records case on May 30. The field dates are May 28 to June 4, 2024, and the margin of error is ± four percent for the 600 likely voters and ± 3.5 percent for the strictly 50 and up sample.

Trump maintains a strong lead in a two-way race with Biden among respondents 18 years or older, at a respective 50 percent 44 percent. Four percent of respondents are undecided, and two percent support “someone else.”

In both the deeper field and two-way race, Trump holds a six-point advantage with independents.

Arizona is one of several swing states that played a key role in deciding the last two presidential elections. The Grand Canyon state went red for Trump in 2016 over twice-failed Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton by 3.5 percentage points.

However, in 2020, it flipped blue for Biden by just three-tenths of a percentage point.  Trump garnered 49.06 percent of the vote share to Biden’s 49.36 percent.

Biden’s poor approval rating and Trump’s strong approval rating in this survey indicate that voters have soured on Biden throughout his term. Just 36 percent of respondents give Biden positive marks, while 62 percent disapprove of his performance.

Conversely, a majority of 53 percent say they approve of Trump’s performance from his time in office between 2017 and 2021, while 46 percent disapprove.