Former President Donald Trump has about a two-in-three chance of completing the greatest political comeback in modern American politics, an Economist model forecast Wednesday.
The model gave President Joe Biden an 83 percent chance of victory in 2020 four years ago.
The model is predicated on national polling and is updated daily with economic indicators. “To work out the likely electoral-vote totals, we run over 10,000 simulations of the election,” the Economist explained.”
Trump has consistently led Biden in the forecast since March, when the Economist began the simulation.
June 12 represents the largest spread between the two candidates. Trump sits at a 66 in 100 chance of victory, while Biden’s chance is only 33 in 100.
The model only gave an electoral college tie a less than 1 in 100 chance.
Trump also leads Biden in the six swing states the model tracks: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.
It weighted Michigan (14 percent) and Pennsylvania (24 percent) as having the greatest chance of being the states that decide the election.
Trump’s projected margin of victory in Michigan and Pennsylvania is +1 and +2, respectively, according to the model.
The forecast is strong news for Trump, who maintained his lead over Biden after being convicted in a Manhattan courthouse.
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Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.
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