Bloomberg Poll: Trump Keeps Lead in Key Swing States, Tied in Nevada and Michigan 

Former President Donald Trump maintains a significant lead in several key swing states while statistically tying President Joe Biden in Nevada and Michigan, a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll revealed Wednesday.

Trump continues his advantage over Biden, compared to previous Consult polling, even though Trump has not campaigned much due to his criminal trial.

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Seven states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — will likely decide the presidency. If Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden’s chance of obtaining 270 electoral votes narrows.

When the poll included third party candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the race between Trump and Biden remained about identical. The only exception was in Nevada, where Trump opened a lead on the president.

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks to supporters during a campaign event on April 13, 2024, in West Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Bloomberg provided an analysis of Kennedy’s impact on the race:

When third-party contenders are included, the margins between Trump and Biden are nearly identical in most of the states except Nevada, where Trump’s advantage is a bit wider. As with the head-to-head test, the former president leads Biden in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and — more narrowly — Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but has no advantage in Michigan.

The leading third-party contender — independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — has seen his standing decline across the swing-state map since our tracking began in October.

In our swing-state aggregate, Kennedy has 7% backing — down from 10% in the fall. (Jill Stein and Cornel West, who were also included in the survey, had 1% support.) Kennedy’s biggest decline has been in Wisconsin, where his support has fallen from 13% to 6%. This appears to have boosted Biden in the key “blue wall” state, where his support is now strongest among his Democratic base on the multi-candidate ballot test.

The poll surveyed 4,962 U.S. registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from May 7-13 with a one-point margin of error.

President Joe Biden attends the NAACP Detroit Branch annual “Fight for Freedom Fund Dinner” in Detroit, Michigan on May 19, 2024. (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)

The poll is the latest battleground survey that shows Trump beating Biden in the majority of swing states.