President Joe Biden and his advisers reportedly denied significant negative polling data, despite media allies repeatedly warning the administration to moderate its far-left policies.
Former President Donald Trump leads Biden in five of the six swing states and made historic inroads with Hispanic, black, and young voters, New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer polling found Monday.
The poll confirmed numerous polls dating back to November.
Biden, 81, does not believe the negative surveys, and neither do many of his advisers, because they are inaccurate, according to people familiar with the president’s thinking, Axios reported:
- That bedrock belief has informed Biden’s largely steady-as-she-goes campaign — even as many Democrats outside the White House are agitating for the campaign to change direction, given that Biden is polling well behind where he was four years ago.
Biden flouted the repeated warnings and accused allies of allegedly not reporting positive national polls, such as a recent PBS/Marist poll:
- “While the press doesn’t write about it, the momentum is clearly in our favor, with the polls moving towards us and away from Trump,” Biden told donors last week.
- “In the last 23 national polls, I’ve been ahead in 10 of them, Trump has been ahead in eight, and we’ve been tied in five,” Biden said in Tampa, Florida last week, citing polls by Marist, Echelon Insights and Marquette.
- “We run strongest among likely voters in the polling data,” Biden told elite donors Saturday. “And while the national polls basically have us (among) registered voters up by four, (among) likely voters we’re up by more.”
Swing state polling is a greater indicator of presidential campaign success than national polling. Numerous swing state polls show Trump dominating Biden. The latest negative Times poll, published on Monday, showed Trump gained eight percentage points among 2020 swing state voters who cast ballots for Biden. It also showed a majority of swing state voters said there is “not really any chance” they would cast a vote for Biden.
“Frankly, for the Joe Biden campaign, these numbers are an absolute disaster,” CNN’s Harry Enten reported Monday on the Times polling data. “Thirteen in Nevada. My goodness gracious. My God. That is a huge lead. No Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry lost it back in 2004.”
Seven states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — will decide the president, longtime Democrat adviser Doug Sosnik wrote in the New York Times. If Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden’s chances of obtaining 270 electoral votes become slim.
If Biden wins all blue wall states, in essence, he will win reelection without winning any of the Sun Belt states. “But if he loses all four competitive Sun Belt states, Biden can’t afford to drop any of the Blue Wall states,” Steven Shepard, Politico‘s senior campaign and elections editor and chief polling analyst, wrote. “And given the size of Michigan (15 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), it’s difficult for Biden to cobble together any Electoral College majority without them, even if he manages to hold Arizona or Nevada.”
Biden campaign pollster Molly Murphy pushed back on the campaign’s failure to heed the warnings.
“This campaign is not arguing for the status quo,” she told the Times. “The most important piece is acknowledging that people are still feeling frustrated and behind, and that the problems and the struggles that people are facing were not caused by this president and in fact have been alleviated” by Biden.
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.