Former President Donald Trump gained eight percentage points among 2020 swing state voters who cast ballots for President Joe Biden, New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer polling recently found.
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, the poll asked voters who they would vote for if the presidential election was held today.
Among those who voted in 2020 for either candidate, Biden lost eight percentage points to Trump, the data showed, while Trump only lost three percentage points to Biden, a Trump net gain of five percentage points in less than four years.
Swing state states are often won by just a couple thousand votes.
In addition, among the 18 percent of the sampled electorate who did not vote in 2020, 49 percent said they would vote for Trump in 2024. Only 32 percent said the same for Biden, a 17-point difference.
The poll’s hypothetical question did not take into account third-party candidates. However, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. won an average of ten percent throughout the six swing states and appeared to take support equally from both Trump and Biden.
Overall, Trump leads in five of the six swing states, the poll found:
- Arizona: Trump 49%-42% (registered voters), 49%-43% (likely voters)
- Georgia: Trump 49%-39% (registered voters), 50%-41% (likely voters)
- Michigan: Trump 49%-42% (registered voters), Biden 47%-46% (likely voters)
- Nevada: Trump 50%-38% (registered voters), 51%-38% (likely voters)
- Pennsylvania: Trump 47%-44% (registered voters), 48%-45% (likely voters)
- Wisconsin: Biden 47%-45% (registered voters), Trump 47%-46% (likely voters)
“Look at the Sun Belt battleground states,” CNN’s Harry Enten reported Monday. “Frankly, for the Joe Biden campaign, these numbers are an absolute disaster,” he said. “Look at this: nine in Georgia, thirteen in Nevada. My goodness gracious. My God. That is a huge lead. No Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry lost it back in 2004.”
Seven states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — will decide the president, longtime Democrat adviser Doug Sosnik wrote in the New York Times. If Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden’s chances of obtaining 270 electoral votes become slim.
If Biden wins all blue wall states, in essence, he would win reelection without winning any of the Sun Belt states. “But if he loses all four competitive Sun Belt states, Biden can’t afford to drop any of the Blue Wall states,” Steven Shepard, Politico’s senior campaign and elections editor and chief polling analyst, wrote. “And given the size of Michigan (15 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), it’s difficult for Biden to cobble together any Electoral College majority without them, even if he manages to hold Arizona or Nevada.”
The poll sampled 4,097 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from April 28 to May 9, 2024. The margin of error ranges from 3.6 points (Pennsylvania) to 4.6 points (Georgia) and joins together at 1.8 points.
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.